Meanwhile, right across the South China Sea . . .

QUICK: Which member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will have an election in the coming months that could alter the national leadership, with impact on the region’s geopolitical landscape?

Filipinos now revving up for their May elections can be forgiven for giving the wrong answer. Their polls, while possibly strengthening the hand of the Philippines’ political opposition, will not unseat President Benigno Aquino 3rd.

But Malaysia’s parliamentary elections, required by law to be held on or before June 27, could very well put a new prime minister at the helm of Asean’s secondrichest nation with nearly 29 million citizens and per-capita income nearing $16,000 a year.

The possible leadership swing in Kuala Lumpur could affect regional geopolitics, especially if a new leader sees virtue in cozying up to Washington in defiance of Beijing, as Manila and Hanoi have done.

Moreover, the elections could affect the prospects for a final peace agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, now being brokered by Malaysia and recently boosted by Aquino’s unprecedented visit to the MILF stronghold of Sultan Kudarat.

So no surprises in the recent highly publicized exertions by a top Malaysian leader to stir media buzz and voter attention, though some of the region’s veteran political watchers were still flummoxed when asked who essayed the following moves in the local and foreign circuit.

The politician in question visited the Hamas-controlled Palestinian enclave of Gaza last month, and then went to Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Economic Forum.

There, he told investors the threat of Islamic militancy in Southeast Asia had been nullified; yet upon returning home, he promptly had three alleged terrorists detained for subversive activities.

Soon afterwards, he was mortified to hear that Singapore’s long-ruling People’s Action Party had lost a by-election in a formerly safe seat after an anti-government swing of 13.5 per cent.

This week he plans to attend a vote-getting Chinese New Year bash at which South Korean superstar Psy will perform his billion-YouTubeviews “Gangnam Style” dance.

Some observers might have wrongly guessed that the leader in question was Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. His party does face elections soon, and he did visit Egypt and Saudi Arabia last week and attended Davos in 2011, but not this year. However, Yudhoyono’s term will end after the mid-2014 presidential elections, and he is not allowed to run for a third five-year term.

No, the Hamas friend and Psy fan is none other than Malaysia’s rather vulnerable Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is now in total campaign mode.

His trip to Gaza, the first by a non- Arab Muslim leader since 2007, was provocative, dangerous, and crudely geared to impress his Malay-Muslim constituents. But the trip was still highly laudable.

After all, the Hamas-led government in Gaza has been in power since it was democratically elected in 2006 and has more legitimacy than some of Malaysia’s fellow members in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Predictably, the rival Fatah-led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank condemned Najib’s visit, as did Western nations that noticed it. Less predictably, Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim did the same.

Anwar is a rather mercurial fellow. In his younger days, he was a fervent Islamist with revolutionary tendencies. Today his attitudes, especially his foreign policy, align more with those of the United States.

It is understandable. During his long years of detention and subsequent harassment by then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s authoritarian regime, no one supported Anwar as much as America.

But his echo of Washington’s censure of Najib’s visit to Gaza could be a major misstep in an election that will, as always, depend mostly on the vote of the nation’s Muslim Malay majority.

Najib has cannily defended his Gaza trip as a humanitarian mission. He also took the opportunity to chastise Israeli belligerence and offer scholarships to needy Palestinian students.

For a notoriously indecisive politician, it was a bold move that might, on its own, help Najib’s National Front government retain Malay heartland states like Kedah, Perak and Terengganu.

What it will not do is win over non-Malay votes.

Recent soundings are ominous for Najib for they indicate the Chinese and Indian communities will support the Anwar-led opposition.

The PM’s National Front coalition can live with this in peninsular Malaysia where a large majority of the population are Muslims. But if the swing occurs in East Malaysia’s Sabah and Sarawak states, then Najib will be toast.

And it could happen, for his overtures to the east have been hurt by recent revelations of a “citizenship-for-votes” scheme to give hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants identity cards.

Last month, a commission of inquiry was told by one former official that he accepted more than $25,000 to grant citizenship to illegal Filipino, Indonesian and Pakistani Muslims who promised to vote for the National Front.

The numbers certainly support the allegation. In 1960, less than 40 per cent of Sabah’s population was Muslim; today, it is nearly 70 per cent.

How native-born Malaysians react to this vast anomaly in the coming election is hard to gauge. But it is possible that the shock results in Singapore would pale beside what happens soon in Malaysia. Stay tuned. Roger Mitton is a former senior correspondent for Asiaweek magazine and former bureau chief in Washington and Hanoi for The Straits Times of Singapore.