Pernia: 2017 GDP growth may fall between 6.7-6.9%

FULL- YEAR economic growth will likely come in below the midpoint of the 6.5-7.5 percent target and last three months of 2017 could see an easing from the third quarter’s better- thanexpected results, a Cabinet of

“[Growth for 2017 is estimated to fall] between 6.7 percent and 6.9 percent,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia told reporters in an interview percent pace was expected for the October-December period.

surprisingly strong 6.9 percent in the third quarter, raising year-to pace, however, remains slower than the full-year 2016 result of 6.9 percent.

For the fourth quarter alone, Pernia said that government spending, exports, agriculture and consumer spending were “going to kick into the economy.”

“I just want to be modest,” he added. “We are hoping that the ‘Build Build Build’ will provide a big boost to the growth.” he said.

Pernia’s forecast followed Wednesday’s release of an upgraded Asian Development Bank ( ADB) growth forecast for the Philippines.

lender said its latest 6.7 percent outlook – up from 6.5 percent previously – assumed an accelerated government infrastructure program.

2018 forecast

- state spending on infrastructure could drive economic growth to 6.8 percent next year.

likely to accelerate into 2018, off the back of rising public investment as the government executes its ‘ build, build, build’ program,” UBS senior Asean in a statement.

government’s 7-8 percent goal.

should be supported by a wider domestic product (GDP) in 2018 and the implementation of an initial set of tax reforms sought by the government.

- in 2018 as the tax package should

yield an administrative increase percent target.

“Second, while different mea- sures of the output gap yield varying results … our work on looking at investment rates and working- age population growth implies potential real GDP growth in the Philippines likely between 6 percent and

In terms of interest rates, the UBS economist said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ( BSP) was likely to raise policy rates by up to 75 basis points (bps) in 2018

“BSP has highlighted that, while it expects the tax package to close to 50 bps, it doesn’t foresee a breach of the upper bound,” he said.

“Due to our above-consensus - look for Fed rate hikes, we foresee 75 bps of rate hikes from BSP in 2018, followed by another 50 bps in 2019.” he said.

stem peso’s relative underper - versus the dollar near the end of next year.