Curb your (Cha-cha) enthusiasm

For a “massive information campaign” on the supposed positives of a federal form of government will merely expose the dark underbelly of the shift to a federal form of government, and that would render the costly “information campaign” useless. There would be massive “enlightenment” on the cons of a shift. The more people get to know the particulars and details of the proposed shift to a federal form of government, the more the opposition to the proposed shift would intensify.

The people will merely validate the summation made by former Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr. on the impact of the proposed shift. A “leap to hell,” Justice Davide said. Aye, the people will say, as they get a deep grounding on the details and particulars of the proposed shift.

The possible elevation of provincial political dynasties into regional and all- powerful political dynasties is one dreaded scenario that would come to full light once the people learn more about the particulars of the current effort to shift from a unitary to a federal form of government. This is the view from serious political scientists.

The independent political scientists that studied the three draft charter change proposals, from the PDP- Laban draft on the structure of a federal form of government to the newly- released study done by the Consultative Committee, reached a unanimous consensus as to impact of the federal shift. They all agreed that the upgrading of political dynasties from province- based to region- based and all- powerful dynasties will take place, an inevitable result of the shift. Instead of upgrading democracy and meritocracy, the shift will promote and upgrade the political dynasties.

The political scientists all took note that there is no credible and workable transition plan in all the three drafts. That will give the dynasties all the time and resources to accumulate enormous power during the transition years — the sure formula to making the regions under the proposed federal form of government their virtual strangleholds. As the interim commissions and committees that would prepare for the transition would be stacked up with people and interests identified with the local political elite, the commissions and committees will just be instruments in propping up their power.

The shift will not be about people empowerment but about political dynasty upgrading. What if the dynasties govern like the Ampatuans who have been accused in court of killing 32 journalists in one sitting, maiming their lifeless bodies with backhoes, then burying them in mass graves?

Of course, the would- beimpact of a shift to the national economy is by now a settled issue. The economic planning secretary himself harbors real fears that the shift, if not carefully done and done in calibrated stages, would wreak havoc on the national economy.

The deficit to GDP ratio would rise to 6 percent, almost double the ideal 3 percent. Infrastructure spending would be disrupted, savaging Build, Build, Build in the process.

The mainstreaming of the lagging regions, which is the Number One economic agenda of the proposed shift, would be imperilled.

We have yet to factor in the added cost, from P40 to P70 billion alone for the bloat in the bureaucracy that is a given under a federal form of government.

We have yet to discuss the structure of the judicial system, which under the draft written by the ConCom would have four, yes, you got the number right, four Supreme Courts. That would be both a farce and a tragedy.