Global security crisis: War or pandemic?

THE year 2020 came with many security concerns and uncertainties in terms of internal and regional threats. Challenges have been posed by, among others, the renewed missile testing by North Korea; clashes between India and Pakistan; continuing violence in Afghanistan in spite of a United States-Taliban peace agreement; China’s efforts to displace US influence in the South China Sea, thus asserting itself as the leading regional power; US troops withdrawal from Syria, allowing Russian and Turkish forces to move in, contrasting the superpower’s approach to other countries in the region; tensions and security threats dominating in Latin America amid increased interest from China and Russia; fracturing relations between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), as well as Middle Eastern instability encouraging European alliance countries to raise their defense spending and deepen collaboration; and the heightened conflict between the US and Iran, bringing us nearer to a nuclear war.

At the United Nations, the Review Conference of the 50-yearold Treaty on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons ( tasked to undertake further efforts to reduce and ultimately eliminate all types of nuclear weapons threatening the world) was delayed by the impossibility of bringing together a large number of people to the UN New York headquarters at this time. Delayed in taking shape, too, is the plan of the US, France and those of NATO as a whole to place weapons in outer space about which Russia and China object.

Be that as it may, the global security crisis is not what you think, just in case you have in mind nuclear war. Nuclear war was upstaged, in the meantime, by the global coronavirus pandemic.

Endemics, epidemics, pandemics

Endemics are diseases that have constant presence in an area such as colds and seasonal flu. They are endemic because they are expected. Epidemics are often sudden outbreaks and the tally of new cases exceeds what is expected for an infectious disease in a given region.

Pandemics, on the other hand — like the current public health crisis caused by coronavirus — not only exceed expected cases, but also spread over many countries and, often, many continents. (Scientists explain that the coronavirus is an animal virus that mutated and made the “jump” from animal to humans and thereafter from human to human.)

In spite of the advances in science and medical research, modern living makes it easy for infectious diseases to spread. In the olden times, plagues ravaged port cities that were overrun by vermin. Today, viruses like the mosquito- transmitted Zika hit slums in South America really hard. The armed conflict in Syria led to a reported rise in tubercolosis and polio because of destroyed hospitals and population displacement. Ebola in West Africa managed to spread widely in 2014 because of slow response from the international community.

Even natural disasters like the 2010 earthquake in Haiti caused a cholera outbreak because of poor sanitation and overwhelmed health services.

Climate change is pointed to as the fastest way for diseases to cross borders. As warmer temperatures expand, the range of diseasecarrying animals and insects are exposed to it. An example is the H1N1 flu virus, which spread to 48 countries in just one month.

Add to the enumeration the possibility that genetic engineering tools have made it easier for terrorist groups or lone madmen to unleash custom-designed killer germs.

Deaths and discoveries

Statistics reveal that in last 100 years, the Spanish flu ( 1918) killed over 50 to 100 million people, more than the total combined casualties in World Wars 1 and 2. The Asian flu killed 2 million in 1957 and H1N1 flu killed 200,000 in 2009.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 killed fewer than 800 people, but the cost in lost trade, transportation disruption and health care was tremendous.

Experience during major contagious disease epidemics and pandemics has proved that the number of people infected per capita has fallen overtime on account of modern disease control in place, but attention should also be given to the fact that there are more people in our planet now than before. That means more humans to be infected and to infect others, especially in densely populated areas.

Historical records also show that through perseverance and persistent trial- and- error techniques, cures were discovered on otherwise incurable diseases, which are now lasting breakthroughs in the field of medical science. Among them: Emil von Vehring on an effective immunization against diphtheria (1912); Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin (1928); Max Theiler came out with a vaccine for yellow fever; Selman Walksman discovered streptomycin (1952); and Jonas Salk developed the polio vaccine.

Fighting coronavirus

True to its mandate, the UN’s World Health Organization is consistently at the forefront of coronavirus containment and control from its inception as a “public health emergency of international concern,” as the virus spreads across the world. Disease control and prevention centers, medical research institutes, pharmaceutical companies and charitable foundations are one in efforts at testing and developing a vaccine against the coronavirus.

Countries are reporting progress in their respective efforts to find a cure. A San Diego, US biological technology company is developing a vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and the National University of Singapore. A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in their research. Scientists in Israel are likely to announce development of a coronavirus vaccine. Japan, China, Australia, Cuba, France and Belgium are on the same track.

Reports of recoveries are continuously coming in. China closed down its last coronavirus hospital as there are no cases to support them.

As tremendous efforts are being exerted by countries to “fight the war” against coronavirus, certain developments proved good to planet Earth. Reduction of air pollution was felt worldwide. There was an almost total absence of the “normal” air pollution in China, as well as in Italy. The sharp downturn in industrial activity has led to corresponding drop in electricity demand, reducing emissions from power plants, the biggest source of harmful greenhouse gases.

And, as countries interact and interconnect toward the common goal of licking the mysterious and deadly coronavirus, the role of health as a crucial foreign policy came to the fore. Health policy was reaffirmed and strengthened as an instrument to solve or remedy a public health problem, issue or concern. In that regard, political leaders should be guided by scientific evidence and compassion. Enlightened global health diplomacy could save countless lives.

Pandemics can be fought and won

For years, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has been funding research to develop vaccines against existing threats from infectious diseases. Bill Gates, who recently stepped down from the Microsoft board to focus on philanthropy, told an audience in 2015, “… When I was a kid, the disaster we worried most was a nuclear war. But, today, if anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s almost likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles but microbes.”

On a positive note and in the light of the platform “No first placement of weapons in outer space,” the Gorbachev-Reagan formula goes, “A nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought.”

Pandemics can be fought and won by discovery of vaccines as borne out by experiences in the recent past.