America vs China: The new Cold War heats up

WIll there be armed conflict between america and china? Frictions are ratcheting up amid Beijing’s passing of a stringent security law for Hong Kong and Washington’s deployment of two aircraft carrier groups east of the Philippines twice this month. In response to the tighter clampdown on dissent, the United States announced new trade sanctions on both the Hong Kong Special administrative Region, or HKSaR, and china.

also raising tensions were several flights this month by warplanes of the People’s liberation army (Pla), china’s armed forces, into airspace claimed by Taiwan, which the US pledges to defend, as well as the sailing of a chinese dredger near the Taiwan-held island of Penghu.

and leaders of the association of Southeast asian Nations (asean) declared after their online summit last week that conflicting claims in the South china Sea (ScS) should be settled peacefully and in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations convention on the law of the Sea, or Unclos — seen by media as a stronger pushback against Beijing’s “nine-dash line” claim over nearly all the ScS.

The intensifying frictions are just the latest in a year of tough chinaUS trade negotiations and sanctions, and the global war of words over Washington’s criticism of Beijing over Hong Kong pro-democracy protests and the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic. Plus:

Washington’s moves and calls on allies to restrict chinese telecommunications technology, most especially telecoms giant Huawei.

and in the Philippines, after the second collision between a Philippine fishing boat with a vessel from chinese territory, the china policy of President Rodrigo Duterte faces renewed criticism from quarters wishing to restore close US security ties, including the opening of five Philippine bases to american forces under the 2014 enhanced Defense cooperation agreement (eDca).

Where is this going?

So, will there be american and chinese shots fired over these brewing tensions?

Not this year or even next. With the worst global recession since the 1930s spawned by the covid-19 pandemic, both china and the US can ill-afford totally crashing the world economy with even a brief skirmish, which would surely collapse international trade and investment even more.

But there would be much huffing and puffing, mainly for the home gallery and partly for international consumption.

For china, the regime of President

Xi Jinping must demonstrate that chinese global power, prosperity, and prestige have grown, not diminished since he became leader for life in March 2018. apart from the worldwide economic downturn, Beijing faces job and growth challenges with foreign manufacturers moving out to escape US trade sanctions to china-made goods.

On the maritime front, meanwhile, the Pla seeks to counter increased military deployment in east and South china Seas and the Western Pacific by the US and its allies, including Britain, France, and its Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral partners australia, India and Japan. The Taiwan and Hong Kong tensions, not to mention the recent war threat from North Korea, would keep those forces beefing up their asian presence.

Turning to america, President Donald Trump’s plunging ratings, losing ground even in traditionally strong Republican states like Texas, cannot but tempt him and his administration to rev up confrontation with china — a common political tactic to shore up public support for the government.

This tendency seems even more likely with the global recession, which is already hitting the US harder than even its excruciating 2008 financial crisis. Unemployment hit the highest in eight decades in april, at 14.7 percent, idling more than 23 million americans. Joblessness has eased in May but remains at 21 million.

and in the competition for asean, Washington will again need to counter Beijing’s usual financial and economic carrots with military clout. In the past decade, the US has offered Southeast asia nothing like china’s massive Belt and Road investment and aid packages.

Instead, it has touted american might. But guns have little appeal in a region at peace. Hence, rising confrontations favor the US in winning over the region. So, expect Washington to keep frictions high, if only to give asians reason to want its guns over Beijing’s butter.

The US need for regional tension is even more crucial in the Philippines, where only confrontation with china can sway the popular Duterte administration to restore the alliance with america.

Indeed, that prospect seemed on the cards with the recent decision to suspend moves to abrogate the Visiting Forces agreement, on which the eDca is based, soon after the Pla made some aggressive moves in the South china Sea.

Plainly, if china wants to keep asean, especially the Philippines, at least neutral, it must avoid stirring up tension in the ScS. It did the opposite when it seized Scarborough Shoal in 2012, leading to the eDca. Making that mistake again could not only revive that agreement, but even prompt regime change in 2022.