Coronavirus vaccine: Are Trump and Duterte hawking fake news?
AT a certain point, in the effort to get ahead of events and predict the future, a president, prime minister, or national leader can fall prey to the seductions of sorcery or prophecy.
They may, like Ronald Reagan, fall under the spell of astrology and the daily horoscope. According to Lou Cannon, in his book, President Reagan: The Role
of a Lifetime, Reagan’s presidential schedule was drawn up in consultation with an astrologer. Together with his wife Nancy, Reagan attended weekly astrology classes, and the couple appeared at zodiac parties in Hollywood.
Cannon found plenty of evidence that Reagan’s was “a government of, by and for the stars.” He was unable to think analytically. He believed fervently in happy endings. He had difficulty in distinguishing between fantasy and reality.
And yet Reagan is considered as one of the most successful US presidents in history. He is credited with breaking the back of the Soviet Union, by luring the Russians into an arms race with America and his Star Wars project. Speaking in Berlin within sight of the Berlin Wall, Reagan told Mikhail Gorbachev, “Tear down this wall.” And then magically the wall came down, and in quick succession the whole of Eastern Europe and the entire Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Right then, all of international communism and the Cold War died.
None of Reagan’s many biographers has suggested that Reagan saw any of that on a horoscope.
Seminal event in world history
We may be on the cusp today of another seminal and tidal change in world history as the world approaches the climax or resolution of the global struggle against the coronavirus pandemic.
Not surprisingly, because of the truly agonizing ordeal that all humanity is living through, there has been a lot of prognostication and crystal-gazing about how or when the pandemic is going to end.
Some have lately become very bold in their forecasts.
Is it just coincidence that President Donald Trump of the United States and President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, within a week of each other this month, have both issued grand predictions on a coronavirus vaccine that will halt the pandemic? Do they both consult a crystal ball or astrologer in running their respective countries?
1. On August 1, during a briefing on the Covid-19 situation in the Philippines. President Duterte declared that the country would be “back to normal” by December. He said he was counting on getting a coronavirus vaccine from China by then.
“I promise you, by the grace of God, I hope by December we will be back to normal,” he told his countrymen during the briefing.
“Let’s just wait for a vaccine. Let’s wait till December, if we can just be patient... We are not going back to a ‘new normal.’ It’s going to be normal again,” he said as he extended restrictions in Metro Manila up to mid-August.
He said it was good that the Philippines had kept good relations with China as he expressed hope that China’s top pharmaceutical and research firms would be ready with a vaccine against the coronavirus before the end of the year.
2. On August 6, President Trump told an interviewer that a US coronavirus vaccine was “possible” by November. He said that a vaccine may be produced ahead of the US presidential election on November 3 — a more optimistic timeline than given by his top infectious diseases doctor.
Asked by radio talk show host Geraldo Rivera whether a vaccine could come by the election, Trump said: “I think in some cases, yes, possible before. But right around that time.”
Trump said the vaccine would be ready “sooner than the end of the year. Could be much sooner.”
“We have a lot of vaccines under study by the way. We look like we’re going to be really good on vaccines and therapeutics also,” he said.
A more careful note was sounded on Wednesday by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the lead medical official in the US fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
Fauci said he was “cautiously optimistic” of success and that “somewhere towards the end of the year, the beginning of 2021, we will know whether they have a safe and effective vaccine.”
What we know about a coronavirus vaccine so far
The twin predictions led me to furiously research the latest developments on the frenzied quest for a coronavirus vaccine. Is the end of the tunnel really as imminent as the two presidents suggest?
Will the US deliver under Trump’s prodding?
Does China have a secret as Duterte suggests?
Of several articles that I found on the subject, the most enlightening and fresh was one by Andrew Trunsky in the Daily Caller website, published on Aug. 2, 2020. It is titled, “Everything we know about a coronavirus vaccine so far.” Trunsky wrote:
“There has been an expansive, international effort to develop an effective vaccine against the novel coronavirus, which has infected over 4.5 million and killed over 150,000 Americans.
“Vaccines have shown promising results, leaving open the possibility that one will exist before the end of 2020.
“But there are other hurdles that could harm a vaccine’s benefits, such as a shortage of critical supplies, an underdeveloped distribution plan, and a growing skepticism of vaccines.
“Researchers, governments and pharmaceutical companies worldwide have been working rapidly to develop an effective vaccine against coronavirus.
“Testing has advanced quickly and there’s optimism that a vaccine will be developed before 2021. But there are also concerns that a vaccine won’t be sufficiently stockpiled or efficiently distributed. There’s additional worry that the growing distrust in vaccines will result in large numbers refusing the injection, making it less beneficial.
“Vaccine development has progressed fast since the coronavirus’ genetic code was first discovered and shared around the world on January 10. Just two months later, the National Institutes of Health administered its first human test.
“In April, the Trump administration launched ‘Operation Warp
Speed, a government effort with the goal of delivering ‘ 300 million doses of a safe, effective vaccine for Covid-19 by January 2021 as part of a broader strategy to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics,’ according to the Department of Health and Human Services’ website.
“And on July 27, a trial led by the NIH and Moderna, a Massachusetts pharmaceutical company, began with 30,000 American volunteers, which, if successful, could be its final test.
“In the United Kingdom, a study at Oxford University produced promising results as well, leaving open the possibility that a safe vaccine will be available sooner than previously thought.
“President Donald Trump has touted successful results in the US and UK, tweeting that a vaccine will be available by the end of the year.
“Despite optimistic results and the president’s statements, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has headed the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, said during a congressional hearing Friday that even though he is ‘cautiously optimistic’ that a successful vaccine will be developed before the year’s end, it is unlikely that it will be widely available to the public.
“To successfully distribute the vaccine to Americans across the country, the US would need over 700 million syringes and needles, assuming that it will be given over two separate doses, The Hill reported. There are concerns that a shortage of these supplies could prevent a vaccine from being distributed sufficiently.
“Awi Federgruen, a professor of management at Columbia Business School, said the little room for error means that the government must be willing to ensure the necessary supplies, distribution channels and awareness campaigns are in place, despite what it may cost in the short term.
“‘You need to over-invest in this situation,’ Federgruen told The Hill. ‘The extra investment costs in this area pale against the cost of having to delay the distribution of vaccines for another three, four months.’”