‘Covid curve flattening’

Expert says positivity rate has dropped

AN expert from a university research team that has been tracking the pandemic’s progress on Sunday said that the country is starting to SEE THE FLATTENING OF THE curve of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).

A curve is a graphical representation of a disease over a period of time, and health authorities see its flattening as a most welcome sign that the virus’ spread is slowly being contained.

In a television interview, professor Guido David, research fellow of the University of the Philippines OCTA Research team, said that the country’s reproduction number had decreased to 0.94, which meant that for every infected person, there were 0.94 persons that could get infected with the virus.

“[The] reproduction number is less than 1...and it is decreasing... that is very good news, it means that we have sustained the flattening of the curve,” David said.

He also noted that the positivity rate or the number of people getting positive over the total number of people tested, had dropped and that the number of Covid-19 patients in Metro Manila hospitals had gone down in the past few weeks.

“The occupancy rate in NCR (National Capital Region or Metro Manila) is decreasing, although there are critical levels in many

LGUs (local government units), but it is decreasing and we think there will be relief in our hospitals soon if the downtrend in the reproduction number continues,” David said.

In the Department of Health’s Sunday report on hospital occupancy, NCR had 66 percent occupancy rate in intensive care unit beds, 64 percent in isolation beds and 66 percent in ward beds.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire mentioned in an earlier briefing that Metro Manila reached 80 percent occupancy rate at a certain point before the August timeout called by frontliners.

David noted that the country is now averaging 3,000 new Covid cases in the past few weeks, as compared to the 4,000 in the early parts of the general community quarantine, with a noticeable decrease in the number of cases in the Metro Manila.

But he warned that flattening the curve did not mean that the pandemic was about to end and urged authorities to sustain the momentum in fighting the virus.

David also advised the government to consider “very carefully” placing Metro Manila under modified general community quarantine, as

proposed by Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, and suggested instead a gradual easing of restrictions.

“We would like to remind the people not to be overly excited dito sa flattening of the curve...pero (but) the trends are not irreversible, we can reverse the trend at any time, ibigsabihin (meaning) we could have another surge...if we lower our guard and be less careful,” he said.

“The virus is still here, and we have to sustain the gains. We have to do the right things and not falter,” he added.

On Sunday, 23,074 new recoveries were recorded, bringing the total to 184.687.

There were 2,839 new cases nationwide, for a total of 237,365 cases and 3,875 deaths.