TRUMP WHITE HOUSE AND G20 COMPOUND COVID-19 DEVASTATION

As the epicenter of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is moving from the Americas to India and poorer economies, Group of 20(G20) countries are severely affected. Facing new and more virulent strains, the world economy will cope with lost years in t

AFTER the first week of September, the United States had 6.5 million accumulated confirmed cases. It was followed by Brazil (4.2 million) and India (4.2 million).

G20 economies have been severely affected. As populationadjusted, the epicenter remains the US because of the the Trump administration’s catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic crisis.

By September, US and the Americas accounted for half of all cases around the world.

Covid-19 damage in the Americas

To understand the full magnitude of the pandemic devastation in America, think of US states as independent economies. Adjusted to the size of population, US states account for 22 of the 25 most virus-affected major economies worldwide ( see Figure 1).

Aside from US states, there are only three countries ( Chile, Peru and Brazil) in this ranking, all in Latin America.

Like the US, Western Europe lost weeks in belated Covid- 19 mobilization. But unlike the US, it has fought the virus more effectively thereafter. Unlike the US, many European economies have stronger health systems, universal healthcare and more comprehensive social support systems.

In contrast, the Americas, with their poorer economies and weaker health systems, has taken a severe hit. In Brazil, the Bolsonaro government ignored sciencebased evidence, shunned early mobilization and public health imperatives. Like India, Brazil has more than 4 million cases. In the pandemic second-tier of Latin America, the key countries (Peru, Colombia and Mexico) each have 600,000 to 675,000 cases.

At population- adjusted level, Chile’s pandemic has been one of the worst worldwide.

There is nothing inevitable about the pandemic crisis in the

Americas, however. Canada’s track record relative to the US suggests precautions can work, despite elevated risks in the regional neighborhood.

G20 mistakes compound human costs, economic damage

Collectively, the G20 economies account for 90 percent of the gross world product, 80 percent of world trade and two-thirds of the world population. What happens to G20 countries will affect the entire world. Unfortunately, that includes the pandemic.

Until recently, severe epidemic outbreaks were usually confined into poorer economies because more prosperous countries relied on science- based public health policies. The case of Covid- 19 has been very different since some of the major G20 countries mobilized against the outbreak belatedly and ineffectively.

To gain a more realistic picture of the consequent threats, let’s use population-adjusted data and focus

on economies in which the cases are still accelerating and positivity rate remains high ( seeFigure2).

At the turn of September, the primary risk group involved the US and the Americas, including Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. While positivity rates have decreased from peak levels in the US, it, along with Brazil, dominates the cases worldwide.

R e g i o n a l l y, the Americas are followed by South Africa, Saudi Arabia ( and tiny Gulf states), Russia and Western Europe, including the United Kingdom, Italy, France and Germany. In these countries, the numbers and the positivity rates, respectively, are significantly lower than in the US and Brazil. But many have been exposed to earlier-than-anticipated secondary waves because of premature exits from the lockdowns.

In India and certain countries in Southeast Asia — the Philippines and Indonesia — where the outbreak arrived somewhat later, positivity rates remain high. Yet, population-adjusted numbers are lower than in most advanced economies. While daily cases are soaring in India and rising in Indonesia, the curve may be finally bending in the Philippines, as evidenced by three-to-seven-day moving averages.

In Japan, the true spread of the virus has been underreported. In population-adjusted terms, testing in Japan remains below that of Pakistan. South Korea’s early performance was successful but more recently it has been hit by several secondary waves, thanks to far-right Christian cult churches and conservative pandemic “denialism” that has infected much of the advanced West.

In contrast, China managed to contain the pandemic within a month or two, which has minimized human costs and economic damage in the mainland.

Preparing for new secondary waves

In the first quarter, China contained the outbreak. As the US and Western Europe failed to do so, the epicenter spread to both.

The magnitude of economic damage has been historical in both and will undermine global prospects in the early 2020s, especially if secondary waves continue to proliferate and if the more infective G strain spreads in Asia when travel restrictions are phased out in the West.

Deglobalization will further undermine prospects for global recovery due to new protectionism and trade wars. These challenges will be compounded by the Trump White House’s expanded wars in trade, technology and finance. While China is the first target, others — Germany and the European Union, Japan and so on — will follow in due time.

A Democratic Biden administration could alleviate the negative public health and economic consequences, but its lead against the Trump White House remains elusive. Conversely, Trump’s second term could accelerate the path to a multiyear global stagnation or global depression, and a dollar crisis.

The global pandemic effects can only be overcome through multilateral international cooperation across all political differences. In the absence of such cooperation, the global Covid-19 human costs and economic damage will not go away anytime soon and could still get worse.

The commentary is based on Dr. Steinbock’s Covid-19 briefing on September 3 and his report “The Tragedy of More Missed Opportunities.” For the full report: https://www.differencegroup.net/covid19-report2. For interview on the report, seehttps://www.differencegroup. net/covid19-report2-interview.

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationallyrecognizedstrategist ofthemultipolarworldandthe founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the European Union Center (Singapore). For more, see https:// www.differencegroup.net/