400 bets vie for California gov
CALABASAS: Eighteen years after Arnold Schwarzenegger stormed to power, California is likely to hold its second-ever governor recall election — but this time campaign veterans say the odds are stacked in incumbent Gavin Newsom’s favor.
Confirmation is expected this month that an anti-Newsom petition, fueled by his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, reached the number of signatures needed to trigger the fourth governor recall vote in US history. Voters would be asked if Newsom — a Democrat — should go, and who they want to replace him if he does.
The greater reputational damage could be to California — which was mocked by the rest of the country last time for an eccentric field of 135 candidates including Schwarzenegger, a porn actress and late Hustler publisher Larry Flynt.
In this era of wealthy, famehungry reality stars, and thanks to California’s low candidate filing fee, said Steve Maviglio, press secretary to Gray Davis, during his loss to Schwarzenegger in 2003. Maviglio predicts as many as 400 could enter this time.
California is the USA’s most populous state and the third biggest in size after Alaska and Texas. It is home to over 40 million, 35 percent of whom are migrants, of which over 11 million are Filipinos, Mexicans and other Central American citizens.
“It’s been a while since California has really reinforced its stereotype to a national and international audience — that’s about to be addressed,” agreed Dan Schnur, communications director for ex-governor Pete Wilson. “We’ve got the beach, we got the mountains, we’ve got Silicon Valley, we’ve got Disneyland . . . I guess we can deal with a little bit of political silliness every 18 years if we have to.”
Former Olympic gold-winner and Kardashian clan member Caitlyn Jenner is among those reportedly weighing a Republican bid to replace the suave 53-year-old from San Francisco, whose popularity fell last summer after he ordered the nation’s first statewide stay-at-home order.
But Schnur said Newsom “is probably more annoyed than he is nervous.”
Donald Trump is loathed by many coastal Californians, and because most Republicans vying to replace Newsom either endorsed the ex-president, or else are not credible and well-known, it is “very difficult to see how anyone can succeed,” he told Agence France-Presse.
Even once signatures are tallied, an election is unlikely to be set for months, with November the most likely date. Meanwhile, Newsom has been quick to dismiss the petition’s organizers as anti-vaxxers and supporters of the QAnon conspiracy theory.
Republicans insist one-third of signatories are independents or Democrats. But just fourin-10 likely voters say they would remove Newsom — similar to the 38 percent who voted Republican in the 2018 California gubernatorial election.
By contrast, a month before the 2003 recall, “half or more likely voters consistently said that they would vote to remove Davis,” said PPIC analyst Rachel Lawler.