‘Nile Eagles 2,’ a message free of subtlety

EGYPTIAN air force fighter jets recently landed at the Merowe Air Force Base in the northern state of the country of Sudan for the training exercise dubbed “Nile Eagles 2.”

At first glance, such exercise may seem almost normal to some observers. After all, military cooperation is only one of many fields in which two neighboring nations may agree. And security cooperation isn’t unheard of, as it occurs even among allies which may be geographically thousands of kilometers apart; let alone sharing borders.

Most media reporting on this exercise was relegated to the sidelines and most have either ignored or have failed to address the elephant in the room.

As mentioned, at a glance the exercise may seem relatively normal but when you look at the geopolitical context of the Nile basin region, the message conveyed by the exercise becomes far more ominous.

To further clarify, in recent years, Ethiopia completed one of its biggest hydroelectrical projects, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a massive $4.8 billion project, capable of generating 16,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) annually, enough to cover the power consumption needs of 234 million Ethiopians, in a country of 109 million. The dam project will not only cover the energy needs of every Ethiopian but will create massive energy surplus that can be exported to neighbouring countries like Djibouti, Tanzania, Sudan and many others, creating up to $1 billion in revenues annually.

The reservoir is capable of holding 74 billion cubic meters of water, far more the annual flow of the Blue Nile, which amounts to 48 billion cubic meters annually and therein lies the main point of contention for the countries upstream, in particular, the Arab Republic of Egypt.

With a water supply of 570 cubic meters per person per year, Egypt is considered severely water scarce, facing an annual deficit of around 7 billion cubic meters and relies heavily on the Nile for the water needs of both its population and agriculture.

The schedule for the filling of the Ethiopian dam can greatly alter the flow of the Nile and in turn, Egypt’s water supply and for a country as water-scarce as Egypt, such a prospect can have serious implications, as filling the dam in a short amount of time can severely restrict the flow of the Nile, placing the nation so reliant on the Nile under threat of severe water shortages.

Another less prominent party in this conflict, which is undoubtedly less affected by the dam but still maintaining a horse in this race, is the Republic of Sudan, which, while not as threatened by water shortages as its neighbor Egypt, could still find itself in a less than favorable position if Ethiopia acts unilaterally.

Despite the threat of water shortages being less prominent for Sudan at first glance — as the country doesn’t consume its yearly mandated share of the waters of the Nile, as per international treaties — the situation in reality is far more complex, as the decreased flow from the Blue Nile would present major complications to Sudan’s hydroelectric power gen

eration infrastructure, something that could be considered invaluable to a country already facing severe power outages due to shortages.

With all this in mind and the ongoing trilateral negotiations between the three countries having broken down recently, it is becoming increasingly obvious the military option is not off the table, especially for Egypt, a country for whom the dam represents an existential threat.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a major investment by Ethiopia and once fully operational, would enable Ethiopia to enter a period of economic growth that can be truly described as renaissance and the Ethiopian government wants to see a return on this investment as soon as possible but all actions taken by the Ethiopian government will have consequences on the countries downstream.

This exercise, “Nile Eagles 1,” goes beyond the usual bounds of bi

lateral military cooperation; it sends a clear message the military option is not off the table for Egypt, if all options are exhausted and there is enough political will to carry out such possibilities.

Ethiopia has long preemptively anticipated such action and has already moved air defense batteries into the area surrounding the dam, although it has to be said this event occurred before this exercise was announced.

With the threat of conflict in the region growing each day, the situation is becoming more dire as diplomatic efforts are failing and with posturing growing, one only has to pray conflict can be avoided. Such a conflict will benefit no one and will leave nothing but destruction and lost lives. We pray cooler heads prevail and the issue can be resolved through diplomacy and mutual understanding.

Muaid Alamin is a regular writer with The Citizen, a Sudanese English-language daily. He is a specialist in analyzing war strategies, border tensions and armaments.