Elections in the time of Covid

THE Duterte Covid-19 Busters, officially known as the Inter-agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID), intends to vaccinate 70 million Filipinos within the current year 2021. The task force expects that by the second quarter of this year, 148 million doses will arrive in the country.

According to the experts, to attain herd immunity from Covid, 70 percent of the country’s population of almost 130 million should be fully vaccinated. The time frame for vaccination to start should be June of this year to attain full vaccination of the required population percentage by February 2022.

If herd immunity is achieved in February 2022, Covid would not have much deleterious effects on our next national elections. Otherwise, most of the election activities, i.e., registration of voters, actual campaigning, voting on election day and vote canvassing, would be seriously impacted.

Let us look at the possible scenarios. One, we will not achieve herd immunity by February 2022 or even by May 9, 2022. Two, there will be a spike in Covid infections up to next year and strict health protocols will be imposed. Community lockdowns may be resorted to. And three, while 70 percent or more Filipinos have been vaccinated, there will still be some hesitance to be in crowded places like campaign meetings, rallies and election precincts during election day.

Vaccine and health experts advise us that the vaccines’ effectiveness may only be for six months. So, those who will be vaccinated from June to October this year will again be vulnerable to Covid and hence, should be re-vaccinated for maximum protection. Verily, people with one round of vaccination completed may still consider themselves vulnerable to Covid infection and would therefore shun public gatherings and crowded places during the election period.

Should herd immunity not be achieved by Feb. 8, 2022, and strict health protocols would still be necessary, campaign organizations of political parties and of candidates would have to come out with novel strategies and activities. For one, rallies and mass meetings may not be allowed as these are considered Covid super spreaders.

It is a good strategy to start the campaign for president, vice president and senators with a big proclamation rally in at least three big cities, namely Manila, Cebu and Davao. The one in Manila should at least be able to gather around 100,000 in the first day of the campaign. In Cebu and Davao, the proclamation day crowd to be respectable should at least be 50,000. Big proclamation rallies have strong bandwagon effects. Toward the end of the 90-day campaign, “miting de avance” in these three major cities would be held as well. To have a strong final bandwagon effect, these campaign-end rallies should be bigger than the proclamation rallies.

In the 1992 presidential elections, the Lakas-UMCD coalition had 90 rallies/meetings in major cities and provinces throughout the country. In the 1995 senatorial elections, when I was the LakasLaban campaign manager, we brought our candidates to more than 100 rallies and meetings. During these occasions, candidates freely mingled with the audience, talking and shaking hands with the voters. In the time of Covid, such activity would be fraught with danger to the health of both the candidate and the voters.

Should Covid-19 and its many variants persist until the campaign period for the 2022 national elections, how would the candidates campaign?

For the national candidates, it will be necessary to fully exploit social, print and broadcast media. I am certain the mass media companies will increase their per second advertising rates. Whatever the political parties and the candidates save from rallies and meetings, they will have to spend on radio and TV political advertisements. Thanks to the pandemic, the media companies will definitely gain unprecedented increase in profits in 2022.

Since singing and dancing are proven effective vote-getting gimmicks, expect some politicians to spice up their broadcast media with songs and dances. A TV show entitled “Politicians Got Talent” will surely be a blockbuster next year.

Candidates for local government positions whose traditional campaign activities merely include barangay and town meetings, and house-to-house campaign visits, a shift to radio and TV political advertisements may not be cost-effective. Candidates may resort to even more rampant vote-buying. But vote-buying is illegal. Candidates, instead of openly buying votes, will hire as many campaign workers as they can afford. The richer the candidate, therefore, the more workers he or she can hire. The campaign worker may be employed for three months or even just for a day. Paying workers for actual work done is, of course, legal and even mandated by the Labor Code. The election day worker may be given the task of guarding the barangay against vote buying and other illegal activities of the opponents and reporting such activities to the employer, who is his/her favorite candidate for governor, congressional representative or mayor, and the one paying the wages. Of course, the worker must also vote for the candidate-employer. This is actually the essence of the employment agreement.

Should the pandemic be still with us until the middle of next year, the Commission on Elections should adopt measures that will assure that every citizen wanting to exercise the right to vote shall be able to do so without unnecessary risks to health and safety.

In normal times, voting precincts are usually crowded and the queues of voters, long. With safety protocols in effect, voters should observe social distancing, wear masks and face shields, or may even be required to show proof of vaccination or a negative swab test. The actual voting process will necessarily be longer than usual.

In the time of a pandemic, the exercise of the right to suffrage may be rigorous, but that is the price of democracy.

Ruben Torres was labor secretary in the Corazon Aquino administration and executive secretary to President Fidel Ramos. At present, he is the general secretary of the Asean Trade Union Council. His email address is labormattersph@gmail.com. Follow him @RubenDTorres4