Who is twisting President Duterte’s arm?

SUDDENLY President Duterte seems hard pressed on deciding whether or not to accept retired Associate Justice Antonio Carpio’s challenge to a debate on the South China Sea side of the Philippines, which, beginning with the Aquino 3rd administration, has come to be known as the West Philippine Sea. It was an American ploy in any case, the renaming of that portion; no matter that for centuries it had always been known as the South China Sea. In 2012, on the occasion of the celebration of the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) between the United States and the Philippines right on the deck of the US warship USS Fitzgerald then docked on Manila Bay — an act symbolic of US assertion of military might over the region, according to one account — then US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton found it opportune to issue a war aside at China thus: “Everybody has a right to stake a claim but nobody has the right to do it by force and intimidation.”

The warning, though stated subtly, was clearly directed at China, which, beginning in 2010, had begun asserting its presence in the South China Sea with the launch of its first-ever aircraft carrier refurbished from an old vessel acquired from Russia. From that time on, over the area, China would never be the same again.

In that same period of the celebration of the MDT, the outgoing intelligence officer of the US Seventh Fleet reported the extent of Chinese presence over reefs and features in the South China Sea as highlighted thus:

– Johnson South Reef, known in the Philippines as Mabini Reef, in which about 10 hectares have been reclaimed for transformation into a military base containing a three-story concrete building ringed with gun emplacements and a helipad.

– Mischief Reef, a three-story concrete building ringed with five octagonal concrete structures It has searchlights and radar.

– Cuarteron Reef, a permanent reef fortress, supply platforms, and naval and anti-aircraft guns. An airstrip is reportedly being planned.

– Fiery Cross Reef, a Marine Observation Station designated in 2011 as “Main Command Headquarters,” equipped with surface and air search radars armed with at least four high- powered naval guns.

– Gaven Reef, a permanent reef fortress, supply platform and harbor for navy patrol boats.

– Subi Reef, a permanent reef fortress and supply platforms that can house troops, such as a helipad and armed with four twin barrel 37 mm naval guns. Also houses a Doppler radar.

With the advent of the Duterte administration and the President’s sudden strong leaning toward China, the US hasn’t really gone far since then in stopping the expansion of Chinese facilities in the region. One way it could effectively revive its effort in this objective is to get in place a Philippine president who would be at its beck and call.

Is it any wonder, therefore, that all of a sudden, the media is ablaze with the issue of President Duterte backing out from a hitherto accepted debate with Carpio on the South China Sea issue, particularly “Chinese aggression in Philippine territorial waters?”

Carpio, non sequitur for presidency

Come to think of it. Carpio is a virtual non sequitur for the presidency. A Pulse Asia survey on “presidentiables” gives him a rating of .02 percent. And yet, why is he being groomed for a presidential debate on the South China Sea. The results, if ever the debate takes place, will definitely accomplish at least two things: first, the full media ventilation of the South China Sea conflict, particularly of the widely promoted Chinese aggression on Julian Felipe Reef, and second, the image-building of Carpio as a leader.

Granting these assumptions, but why, of all people, Carpio, who could only manage that very minute rating in the surveys.

In the first place, a throwback to 1986. That was the year when the rentals for the US military bases in the Philippines would be subject to another round of increases, which Marcos began to impose since his takeover of the presidency in 1965. As we all know now, Marcos called a snap presidential election. Marcos did not have to. He continued to be well-ensconced in Malacañang and was evidently able to keep the economy stable despite the rather massive flight of capital as a result of Ninoy Aquino’s assassination in 1983. Still, he chose to throw his presidency on the line against a non sequitur that was Ninoy’s widow, Corazon C. Aquino.

Why?

Because Marcos needed to be ousted at long last. US rentals for military bases had been upped several times already. One more upping would be unconscionable. Hence, the Cory cry: “Tama na! Sobra na! Palitan na!”

If anything would prove to be Marcos’ undoing in his 20-year regime, it was that he agreed to the arm-twisting of America for him to agree to the snap presidential elections of 1986. The minute he did, all systems went for the US to depose him for good. No matter that he did win the count. All Cory had to do was to cry, cheat, mobilize some 2 million warm bodies for EDSA 1 to get herself sworn in as President of the Republic of the Philippines.

Now, the US must be in a dilemma. It must get its war designs in the IndoPacific going or China maneuvers in the region will go unchecked forever. The Philippine presidency must come into the hands of its Supreme Rah-Rah Boy in the Philippines. Carpio? Why not?

If the simple housewife whose qualification it was to serve coffee to Ninoy and Jose Maria Sison during the two’s meetings at Hacienda Luisita in 1968 for the formation of the Communist Party of the Philippines and the New People’s Army, could get propelled to the presidency through the utter bastardization of Philippine electoral processes, all the more could a similar gambit be done to reach the same objective for a former Associate Justice of the Supreme Court.

But first, do the trick. Get a non sequitur catapulted to the level of a presidential debate.

Who is twisting President Duterte’s arm to accept a debate with Carpio?

You’ve got my answer.