A somber new year for Myanmar

As the first anniversary of the most recent Myanmar military coup approaches early next month, the new year could be said to have descended with a somber mood; at least for the people of Myanmar, if not for the whole of Southeast Asia by association, as although geographically relatively remote to those of us situated at the other end of the region, the perforce reclusive Myanmar is an integral part of Southeast Asia.

Although I made my first trip to Myanmar only less than a decade ago, I grew up in a pre-internet age with occasional snippets of impressions about the most westerly Southeast Asian nation. There were occasions when I accompanied my mother, who was originally from Singapore, to undergo some medical checkups in one of the private hospitals there. Sometimes, there would be a contingent of foreign-flagged luxury cars parked outside the hospital with police escorts, and the security in the hospital would be tighter than usual. A precocious me recognized the flag as being Myanmarese, and indeed, I was told that some Myanmar generals (perhaps members of the then ruling junta) were also undergoing some checkups. But of course, I do not recall actually meeting any of them. That must have been how I first associated Myanmar with powerful military rule, and the subconscious association has persisted since.

My father in turn told me in his younger days, which must have been around the middle of the last century, Myanmar was a prosperous country looked up to by many regional neighbors. Scores of his friends ended up studying in the universities in Myanmar, which were supposedly quite renowned then. A number of them, armed with their prestigious Myanmar degrees, ended up becoming senior civil servants or prominent commercial and social elites in Sabah. Indeed education must have been an important component in Myanmar society, as they produced a college teacher, one U Thant, who later became the first Asian secretary-general of the United Nations, during the initial, crucial years of the Vietnam War. The road next to the US embassy in Kuala Lumpur was named after U Thant.

There was also this thing about the country’s name. I learned from geography textbooks in secondary school that Burma was the name of the country. Then late last century, the then junta decided to change the country’s name to Myanmar, perhaps in an effort to rouse nationalistic sentiments in order to shore up their flagging popular support. Apparently the democratic opposition did not quite buy into the name change, and continued to call the country Burma. I understand that for quite some years Western leaders and diplomats who were engaging with both sides in the country would use Myanmar when meeting the junta leaders, and Burma when meeting the opposition figures. But apparently, when the previous junta decided to share limited powers with the democratic opposition, the latter somewhat tacitly accepted Myanmar as the common term to refer to the country internationally.

Then there was the worldwide expectations for Myanmar’s democratization, when Aung San Suu Kyi led the democratic opposition to a resounding but short-lived electoral victory in the latter part of the last century. The military quickly seized power again, and placed her under house arrest for nearly two decades. She was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, and most of the Western powers imposed sanctions on Myanmar. It should nevertheless be noted that Myanmar was actually allowed to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) during this period, when the country was economically and socially quite isolated.

When Myanmar opened up again a decade ago, the democratic opposition was finally allowed to share albeit limited political power. There was again much worldwide expectation as sanctions were being relaxed, and investors rushed into Myanmar to try to snatch up some of the market shares in a country craving for development. Even I was caught up in the rush, making an exploratory trip to the country, where I found to my pleasant surprise some of the remaining early modern architectural styles.

But the hope for Myanmar’s further integration with the greater Southeast Asian economy essentially crashed again when yet another coup took place nearly a year ago, again after a resounding electoral victory by Suu Kyi’s democratic front. This latest coup caught many observers by surprise, as despite occasional differences, the military and the democratic coalition appeared to be on at least polite working terms, as could be vividly seen in Suu Kyi having exhibited the same hardline attitude on the Rohingya displacement issue, much to the consternation of the international community.

Asean, which has always stood on its supposed centrality in regional political security matters, somehow decided and was allowed by the major powers to take up the mantle of attempting to help resolve this latest Myanmar crisis. Asean initially tried out what may be called an appeasement approach, inviting the new junta chief to a special summit at the Asean headquarters in Jakarta, and put together a short Five-Point Consensus for going forward in the matter.

Yet the junta remained recalcitrant on many fronts. Despite the consensus’ call for an early end to violence, the Myanmar military remained ruthless in violently crushing the democratic opposition. Suu Kyi and other democratic leaders remained in custody with trumped- up charges and convictions, the latest pertaining to possession of walkie-talkies. The previous Asean special envoy was not permitted to meet with any of them, thus rendering meaningful mediation between the two opposing sides untenable. Asean did firm up its attitude toward the end of last year by refusing the junta chief an invitation to its summit. But the situation remains a bloody stalemate, with the junta refusing to budge even an inch.

In came Hun Sen, the fourdecade leader of Cambodia which assumed the rotating Asean chairmanship this year. Hun Sen made an official visit to Myanmar over the weekend, the first by any foreign leader. There were diverging opinions as to the efficacy of his visit. Some have criticized him for lending legitimacy to the Myanmar junta. Others have pinned some hope on him, being the longestserving Asean leader, to work out some magic that could hopefully persuade the junta to make some concessions. The initial prognosis was not optimistic as the trip did not bring about any immediate positive result. Suu Kyi was not only not allowed to meet Hun Sen, but was slapped with another criminal conviction the day after Hun Sen left. Some have even ventured to speculate that Hun Sen was trying to play statesman to deflect criticisms of some of his own domestic political concerns. If that is the case, he will have to deliver fast on the Myanmar front.