Rising nuclear stockpile

But here is the staggering reality: despite the non-proliferation treaty, the global inventory of nuclear weapons remains high. According to one credible estimate, nine countries have stockpiled 12,700 nuclear warheads as of early this year. Ninety percent of the warheads are owned by Russia and the US. As decreed by the treaty, nuclear countries must gradually reduce their stockpiles. They are complying, but at a leisurely pace. More alarming, China, India, North Korea, Pakistan and the United Kingdom, and maybe Russia, are believed to be building up their stockpiles, not reducing them.

More than 9,400 warheads are ready to be fired by missiles, aircraft, ships and submarines.

Many of those nukes may not be powerful enough to ensure MAD, but they can be deployed in smaller war zones, which make them perfect for the Ukraine battleground.

Putin is aware of this, and with the Russian push in Ukraine stalled, it is a tempting option. “The chances are low but rising,” notes a nuclear expert. “The war is not going well for the Russians and the pressure from the West is increasing.”

The same expert sees Putin probing the waters by first firing a nuclear missile at an uninhabited area to find out how everyone will react.

That is a frightening scenario that can only be headed off by a more aggressive diplomatic effort to end the war in Ukraine. Unless there is a dramatic breakthrough in peace negotiations, the cloud of nuclear conflict will cast yet another ominous shadow on the war-scarred Ukrainian landscape.