Eyes on the prize as Malaysia decides

KOTA KINABALU: It is election season in Malaysia, more commonly known as the campaigning period — the two-week stretch between the official nomination of candidates for elected positions by various parties (although a record number of candidates chose to run as independents) and voting day. Unlike in the United States or perhaps the Philippines, the Malaysian campaigning period is rather short, such that the various political forces would have to in a sense “cram” everything, from messaging to canvassing into this contentious time frame.

The recently dissolved Malaysian government was of a coalition variety cobbled together by two big political camps, the Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), together with GPS and GRS, respectively the state ruling coalitions in Sarawak and Sabah. It was strangely also supported by the largest opposition bloc, the Pakatan Harapan (PH), which propped up the government — which has to enjoy a majority in parliament — for the past year. Now that the parliament has been dissolved, it is a wide open electoral field for all these different camps. BN, for example, is running head to head against its erstwhile coalition PN in most constituencies (electoral districts), in addition to PH.

For more than a year, BN — and especially its leading party, UMNO — has been supremely confident of winning this general election, especially after its spectacular state election performances in Melaka and Johor, which saw it trumping both PN and PH. So UMNO had long bayed for a snap poll, such that it could — at least in its own estimation — win an overwhelming number of parliamentary seats to consolidate its federal ruling position, without having to cater to the political demands of both PN and PH. But the then (now caretaker) prime minister Ismail Sabri, who hails from UMNO, was not too enthusiastic about calling for a general election soonest (the Malaysian parliament has a term of no more than five years, which may be cut short by a new general election), for it is an open secret that after the general election, a triumphant UMNO will more likely than not replace Ismail with a prime ministerial candidate more to the liking of the UMNO mainstream faction, to which Ismail does not belong. But eventually, the pressure from his own party was too intense to resist, and the parliament was dissolved.

But more than a week into the campaigning period, UMNO — and by extension BN which consists of several other minor parties at the beck and call of UMNO — suddenly does not look so triumphant anymore. Some recent opinion surveys widely seen as authoritative placed PH’s popularity to be on par with, if not surpassing, BN, with PN trailing not so far behind. PH has perhaps picked up steam on the campaign trail, as its many eloquent leaders went on speaking circuits around the country, rousing the crowds in political rallies. But it remains to be seen if this slight edge would indeed translate into more votes and eventually seats for PH. Many PH supporters are disillusioned by political developments over the past five years, which saw PH being voted into government but unceremoniously removed less than two years later when a number of its MPs defected to form the aforementioned shaky coalition government. Many PH supporters may thus not come out to vote at all, which would of course benefit UMNO and PAS, an Islamist component party of PN, both of which have at their disposal powerful voter mobilization machinery that could get their supporters out to vote even in the most extenuating circumstances. Moreover, Malaysia’s electoral map is drawn in such a way that it heavily skews toward rural seats, which are typically strongholds of UMNO and PAS, while PH’s supporters are more urban-based, with few seats cramped among large population centers.

After the political turmoil of the last few years, which saw a tug of war among the major political camps, many voters are looking forward to perhaps some semblance of political stability after the election. But this is likely to be a futile hope. It is widely expected that no single political camp is likely to clinch an outright parliamentary majority out of this election. This would imply another round of coalition government, filled with at least the same, if not higher, level of political bickering as is presently the case. The power struggles within the leading parties, such as UMNO, of each political camp would yield enough material for political thrillers. Then there is the tussling among the supposedly friendly component parties of any political camp. And of course the two or more camps in a coalition government would vie for political dominance at coalition partners’ expense. Only then would we be talking about the traditional confrontation between the government of the day and the opposition — if there is anything left of the latter. Malaysians could indeed sit tight for yet more breathtaking episodes of political gymnastics.

Amidst all these political uncertainties, the rise of PAS in particular and of radical political Islamism is a huge worry in a multiracial, multicultural society such as Malaysia. PAS made no secret of its goal and ambition of eventually turning Malaysia into a theocratic state with religious principles instead of long established common law as basic governance framework. Such a scenario is admittedly welcome by not an insignificant number of Malaysians, but also very much abhorred by many others.

But ultimately a government has to maintain peace and promote prosperity for a country. And not all governments are of equal capabilities and goodwill. Malaysia, like many other countries in the region and beyond, is trying to recover from the socioeconomic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and a visionary yet pragmatic hand is needed in leading the country through these stormy times. Communal chicanery must be relegated to the backseat as people’s livelihoods are at stake. For the stakes are indeed high, as the example of recent failed or bankrupt states around the world is plain for all to see. This sobering thought would hopefully accompany Malaysian voters as they go to polls this Saturday.