If China and the US go to war, kawawa ang Luzon

TO bring this life-and-death topic to more Filipinos, the column will have English and Filipino versions in the article. First, English.

If China and the US go to war …

Eight years after then President Benigno Aquino 3rd forged the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) to escalate US military deployment in the country with access to bases of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is implementing the dangerous accord, putting swaths of our country, including three highly populated cities, at grave risk of devastating attack.

In Luzon alone, six bases will host the United States military: two in Cagayan and one each in Isabela, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga and Zambales. Incoming Defense Secretary Jose Faustino Jr. claims that the facilities, also near Cebu City, Puerto Princesa and Cagayan de Oro, are mainly for humanitarian assistance and disaster response.

This is dumb or devious. If addressing calamity and poverty were truly the top reason for EDCA bases, half of them would be in the Visayas and Mindanao, where disasters and deprivation are more than in Luzon. No, the reason six of the 10 facilities are in the north is to position US warplanes, missile batteries and other military assets close to potential conflicts in and around Taiwan, Korea and Japan.

Faustino also said there would be no nuclear weapons brought into those bases. In fact, there is no way to check that since the US never confirms or denies the presence of atomic warheads on any vessel, aircraft or rocket. Indeed, when New Zealand banned nuclear-armed forces in 1984, Washington suspended military deployment in the country.

It is absolutely imperative for Filipinos to know what immense dangers the EDCA bases hold. If there is war between China and America over Taiwan, which many security experts fear, bases used by US forces would be “magnets of attack” by conventional or nuclear weapons, as warned by no less than then President E. Ferdinand Marcos Sr. in 1975.

If war breaks out, US aircraft and projectiles would attack from EDCA bases, as envisioned in Taiwan war games of the Center for New American Security (CNAS). A TV feature on those conflict scenarios (https://www.cnas. org/publications/video/cnason-meet-the-press) show maps indicating US aircraft from the Philippines hitting China (7 minutes into the video) and Chinese forces retaliating (10 minutes).

Have our security and defense chiefs and agencies, whose duty is to safeguard our nation, explained to our people, especially leaders and inhabitants of provinces with EDCA bases, what may happen if war breaks out between China and America? Have those authorities informed Congress, and have our legislators, especially representatives of affected provinces, asked about these facilities?

The US Army-funded 2016 report by think-tank RAND Corp., “War With China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable,” cited “aircraft carriers and regional air bases” used by American warplanes in Asia would be prime targets of Chinese attack before and during hostilities.

If these bases are nuked, not only would vast areas be razed, but radiation would contaminate communities as well as farmland, including our main rice-growing region of Central Luzon.

The EDCA is treason. It must be scrapped.

… kawawa ang Luzon

Walong taon matapos isagawa ni Pangulong Benigno Aquino 3rd ang Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) upang dumagsa ang hukbong Amerikano sa ating bansa, gamit ng mga base ng Sandatahang Lakas ng Pilipinas, ipinatutupad ng Pangulong Ferdinand Marcos Jr. itong kasunduang naglalagay sa malaking panganib ng ating bansa.

Sa Luzon pa lamang, limang base ang ipagagamit sa Estados Unidos (US): dalawa sa Cagayan at tig-isa sa Isabela, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga at Zambales. Sabi ng susunod na Kalihim ng Tanggulang Pambansa Jose Faustino Jr., gagamitin sa kalamidad at tulong sa nagangailangan ang mga base, kabilang ang tatlo pa kalapit ng Lungsod Cebu, Puerto Princesa at Cagayan de Oro.

Mali ito. Kung kalamidad o tulong sa tao ang tunay na dahilan, nasa Bisaya at Mindanao dapat ang kalahati ng mga base. Ang totoo, nasa Luzon ang anim na base upang mailapit ang mga eroplano, barko at raket pandigma ng Amerika sa labanang baka maganap sa Taiwan, Korea at Hapon.

Sabi rin ni Faustino na walang armas nuklear na ipapasok. Ang totoo, hindi masisiguro ito dahil hindi kailanman sinasabi ng US kung aling eroplano, barko, raket at iba pang armas ang may bomba atomika. Nang ipagbawal ng New Zealand ang mga eroplano at barkong may sandatang nuklear noong 1984, inihinto ng America ang pagpunta ng mga puwersa nito sa bansang iyon.

Napakahalagang mabatid ng lahat ng Pilipino ang malaking panganib na dala ng EDCA. Kung magkadigma ang Tsina at Amerika, magiging mga “magnet” o panghatak ng atake ang mga base, pati bomba atomika. Ito ng babala ng walang iba kundi si Pangulong Ferdinand Marcos Sr. noong 1975 (“Stop EDCA

before it weaponizes and wrecks us” https://www.manilatimes. net/2022/10/30/opinion/columns/stop-edca-before-it-weaponizes-and-wrecks-us/1864306).

Aatake mula sa Pilipinas ang mga Amerikano sa mga “Taiwan war games” ng Center for New American Security. Sa balitang telebisyon tungkol sa war games (https://www.cnas.org/publications/video/cnas-on-meet-thepress), may mapa kung saan aatake ang mga eroplanong US mula sa mga baseng EDCA (7 minuto mula sa simula ng video) at babalikan ng Tsina ang Pilipinas (10 minuto).

Naipaliwanag ba ng mga opisyal at ahensiya ng Tanggulang Pambansa itong mga panganib, lalo na ang mga tao sa mga lalawigan at lungsod kung saan may mga baseng EDCA? Nausisa ba ito ng Kongreso, lalo na ang mga kinatawan ng apektadong lugar?

Ayon sa pag-aaral ng dalubhasang RAND Corp. noong 2016, “War With China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable,” tungkol sa digmaang US-Tsina, mga barkong pang-eroplano at mga baseng gamit ng mga puwersang Amerikano ang pangunahing aatakihin ng Tsina.

Kung bomba atomika ang tumama sa mga base, hindi lamang malilipol ang malalawak na pamayanan, magkakaroon pa ng kontaminasyong nuklear sa mga komunidad at pati sa pangunahing palayan ng bansa sa Gitnang Luzon.

Kataksilan ang EDCA. Dapat itong buwagin.

Former Cabinet secretary Ric Saludo holds an MS in Public Policy and Management from the University of London and a postgraduate Diploma in Strategy from Oxford, and is a resource speaker at the Enterprise Risk Management Academy, Singapore.