A surprising rise in Malaysian election

SO, Malaysians voted last Saturday after a grueling fortnight of boisterous campaigning which saw some political leaders crisscross the country to root for their candidates. The voters chose their federal members of parliament (MPs) as well as assembly members in three states. The election results were at once surprising — and not. For going into the general election, it was clear that none of the three major party coalitions — the racialist Barisan Nasional (BN), the religious and racialist Perikatan Nasional (PN), and the reformist Pakatan Harapan (PH) — is likely to obtain a parliamentary majority which would enable it to form a government by itself.

But there was also the “convenient” — at least in retrospect — expectations among many voters and observers alike that the two frontrunning contender coalitions would be BN that had run the country for more than half a century, and PH that also had less than two years of ruling period, with PN relegated to a distant third. This was not an unreasonable presumption, as BN won the last two state elections in Peninsular Malaysia handsomely, and PH came in a distant second while PN was almost wiped out. It was thought that BN would carry its triumphant state momentum into the national election, and perhaps once again lead the crowded electoral field, or at least put up a good fight with PH.

So, when the election results streamed in late Saturday and early Sunday morning, it was no surprise that indeed none of the three major coalitions could reach the halfway point for total parliamentary seats. PH, which won the last general election back in 2018, saw its seats reduced significantly, but still exceeded that of the other two coalitions. What was really surprising was the fact that PN overtook BN and obtained the second highest number of seats. BN could be said to have been soundly defeated, having won only fewer than 15 percent of the total number of seats.

Most of the seats won by PN was by its component party, the Islamist Parti Islam Se-Tanah Melayu (PAS), which more than doubled its seats to nearly a quarter of the total. PAS, like many other MalayMuslim parties in Malaysia, was an offshoot of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the leading component party of BN. In Malaysia, the Malay racial identity and the Muslim religious identity were constitutionally fused, such that any political party expounding Malay racialist aspirations, such as UMNO, would almost necessarily have to also have Islamic elements for the party’s political appeal to be “wholesome.”

And the converse is also true, as in a political party, such as PAS, expounding Islamic values would also have to exhibit racialist Malay elements for it to be politically viable. So both UMNO and PAS may be categorized as communal parties of similar religio-racialist political hue, just that one emphasizes more on racialist identity and the other religious. There is also PN’s other component party, Bersatu, which expounds similar racialist views as UMNO, and which also saw its seats increased in this election. In PH, there is the Amanah party, a moderate offshoot of PAS, which also lost seats.

The shift of mainly MalayMuslim votes from BN (mainly UMNO) to PN (mostly PAS, but also Bersatu) could be attributed to at least two interrelated factors. For one, although UMNO’s patronage politics through the decades has installed UMNO as the defender and dispenser of Malay-Muslim special positions and privileges, it is also plagued by persistent allegations of corruption, scandals and misuse of power. There is an increasing cohort of Malay-Muslim voters that has grown uncomfortable with what they perceive as UMNO’s errant ways. But this same voter cohort could also not stomach what they perceive as decadent liberalism and inclusive multiculturalism that are championed by PH. So the best of both worlds for this voter cohort would be not to vote either BN or PH, but for PN (especially PAS) which they see as relatively “clean” from corruption and still upholds Malay-Muslims’ special positions and privileges.

A second factor has to do with the millions of automatically registered new and young voters. They made up almost a third of the total number of voters in the recently held election. With the voting age having been lowered from 21 to 18, preliminary electoral analysis indicates that many of the young voters voted for the more conservative religio-racialist parties, especially PAS and Bersatu. This of course overturns the conventional wisdom that younger voters are usually more liberal in their political outlook. The many religious schools run by PAS throughout the country turned out a significant cohort of religiously minded young voters. This is coupled with the influence of the worldwide Islamic revivalist movement that has seen many believers of all ages increasingly embrace political Islam.

In any case, the upshot has become a choice of government led either by PH or PN. As both major coalitions do not have the requisite number of seats, they would have to woo other parties or party coalitions to join either of them in forming the next coalition government. Instead of having to win over other political players, BN suddenly finds itself the darling kingmaker in this political game. If BN swings its small but not insignificant number of seats to either PH or PN, that coalition would likely be able to exceed the halfway point for parliamentary seats and thereby form the next Malaysian government.

At press time, such a government has not been formed, although it is expected imminently. A PN-led government would necessarily be a PAS-dominated one, and religious values would take precedence over all other considerations when it comes to future policymaking and implementation. PAS would no doubt roll out its avowed agenda of theocratizing Malaysian polity, society and economy, with the ultimate aim of turning the country into a theocratic regime. On the other hand, a PH-led government would continue to undertake the many structural reforms that are critical to restore Malaysia’s hard-earned stature in the mainstream of the global society and economy. The choice could not be starker as Malaysians await its new prime minister.