The irony and incongruity of China’s Covid situation

HIS thanksgiving day, be thankful that your country (whatever it is) is not facing the ironies and incongruities of China’s Covid situation today.

What an irony! I had to stop myself from calling it a “delicious irony,” an idiom that has often been used in situations like this.

Consider:

The country where Covid-19 originated is having the toughest time in controlling the pandemic.

The country which alone professes a zero-Covid policy is farthest from the goal of exiting the crisis.

The incongruity between the current situation and Xi Jinping’s unbending policy of choice is sardonic.

Agence France-Presse (AFP) on November 22 filed two reports on China’s Covid state of affairs that underscore the difficult situation.

Record new cases

AFP reported that China’s capital had posted a record number of new Covid cases, and followed it up with an analysis that concluded “Confusion clouds China’s path out of zero-Covid policy.”

In the story, “Beijing sees record Covid cases as China outbreak spirals,” AFP reported:

“China’s capital Beijing posted a record number of new Covid cases on Tuesday (November 22), with the city hunkering down under a tightening chokehold of restrictions that have sent schools online, closed many restaurants and forced employees to work from home.

“More than 28,000 new infections were reported nationwide — nearing the record high since the pandemic began — with Guangdong province and the city of Chongqing logging over 16,000 and 6,300 cases respectively, health authorities said.

“New cases in Beijing have also jumped in recent days, more than doubling from 621 on Sunday (November 20) to Tuesday’s 1,438 — a pandemic record for the city.

“The last major economy still welded to a zero-tolerance Covid policy, China enforced snap lockdowns, mass testing and quarantines to control outbreaks to great success in the earlier stages of the pandemic.

“But the latest spiraling outbreak is testing the limits of that playbook, with officials keen to avoid citywide lockdowns like Shanghai’s two-month ordeal in April, which marred the finance hub’s economy and international image.

“Three elderly Beijing residents with underlying diseases died from Covid over the weekend, authorities said, marking China’s first Covid deaths since May.

“While the capital has so far avoided a blanket shutdown, there have been widely enforced snap lockdowns of individual buildings and long PCR testing queues due to the requirement for a 24-hour negative test for entry to most public spaces.

“Over the weekend, authorities advised residents to stay home and not travel between districts. And on Monday, they required travelers to the city to test more times after they arrive.

“Many tourist attractions, gyms and parks have been closed, with large-scale events such as concerts canceled.

“China declared its most significant easing of coronavirus measures to date on November 11, billed as an ‘optimization’ to limit the economic and social impact of zero-Covid measures.

“Among the steps was a reduction of compulsory quarantine times for international arrivals.

“Multiple Chinese cities canceled mass Covid testing last week but some later reinstated them, underlining the difficulty of controlling the fast-spreading Omicron variant.

“Shijiazhuang, which had previously canceled mass testing, began a partial lockdown Monday after cases surged, while several districts of southern epicenter Guangzhou also locked down the same day.

“The limited relaxation has not marked a reversal of zero-Covid, which has left China internationally isolated, wreaked havoc on the economy, and sparked protests in a country where dissent is routinely crushed.”

Easing up but no reversal

An AFP analysis piece, “Confusion clouds China’s path out of zero-Covid,” examines China’s attempt to modify its zeroCovid strategy which threatens to derail the economy and has caused social tensions, but no signs of a reversal of the policy.

“With megacities under lockdown, infection numbers climbing and sporadic protests, China’s Covid-19 policy has reached a stalemate as authorities persist with seeking to contain the virus while trying to keep the economy alive.

“China is the only major economy still attempting to stamp out the domestic spread of the virus, shutting down entire cities and placing contacts of infected patients into strict quarantine.

“A series of new rules announced by Beijing earlier this month appeared to signal a shift away from the strategy, easing quarantine requirements for entering the country and simplifying a system for designating high-risk areas.

“Yet daily cases driven by the evasive Omicron variant have neared 30,000 — low compared to most other large countries but reaching peaks unseen since the chaotic days of Shanghai’s harsh lockdown in the spring.

“That has caused whiplash among China’s urban residents, as officials first eased restrictions before reimposing curbs, all the while claiming to be fine-tuning the zero-Covid strategy personally championed by President Xi Jinping.

“And the flip-flopping has rattled investors, causing global financial markets to wobble.

“Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, told AFP it was too early to say if the new rules ‘signal that the central leadership is willing to give up zero-Covid anytime soon.’

“’Local governments’ incentive structure has not been fundamentally changed by the new adjustments,’ Huang said, noting that lower-level officials were still being held accountable for outbreaks.

Mixed signals

“Chinese officials have responded to growing infections this month with vague and seemingly contradictory messaging that has sparked public confusion.

“Multiple cities canceled mandatory regular Covid tests last week, with some backtracking within days.

“One of the capital’s largest districts, Chaoyang, abruptly shuttered testing booths in its commercial areas early last week, with the faint explanation that it was in line with the central government’s new Covid rules.

“The closures were reversed the next day after local media reported that office workers had been left trawling residential compounds for hours in search of an open testing booth as public spaces tightened testing requirements over a surge in cases.

“Public anger over seemingly arbitrary restrictions and sudden disruptions has erupted in numerous protests in recent months, including in southern China’s Guangzhou this month when hundreds of residents took to the streets.

“’Most officials in China know that the policy as it is no longer makes sense, but no one can fail to implement it as it is Xi’s policy and must be upheld,’ Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, told AFP.

“’We are seeing some adjustments being made without sufficient clarity,’ he said.

“Alfred Wu, associate professor at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said there was a growing tension between the goals of the central government and those of local officials.

“’The anger actually comes from ordinary people and also local public officials,’ whose resources and time are spent overwhelmingly on zero-Covid measures, Wu told AFP.

“Another year of zero-Covid could mean the ‘Chinese economy will be derailed and social tensions may reach a tipping level, which threatens regime stability and may even cause a legitimacy crisis,’ Huang of the CFR said.”