Shopping for a zebra
to come; the ETM and the ending of new coal development by the DoE a couple of years ago won’t touch the dozen or so coal projects that are already in the works. Beyond that, the ETM won’t shut down existing coal plants for at least another 10 years or so; the reduction in a plant’s lifespan facilitated by the program is taken off the back end. For example, a plant that is now a third of the way through a designed 30-year useful life might operate for another 10 or 15 years instead of 20.
Of course, as coal is properly considered environmentally unfriendly we would wish for it to not be a part of the country’s energy mix at all; but the reality is that it exists and will continue to be present for the next couple of decades, so the country may as well plan on making the best use of it while it lasts. Coal also raises the issue of energy security in that about 80 percent of the country’s demand is imported, but that need not be as big a problem as it is now. According to DoE statistics, 65 percent of the Philippines’ domestically produced coal is exported; stop doing that, and the country’s import requirement is immediately reduced by two-thirds.
Beyond that, there are the opportunities in sustainable domestic gas development that I detailed in my previous column, which also address the Philippines’ overwhelming solid waste problem. In addition, there is the possibility — although it is a remote one at this point — that new conventional supplies of gas to replace the depleted Malampaya gas field might become available, obviating the need for imported gas, and possibly even presenting an opportunity for the Philippines to become an exporter of the hot commodity.
With all of the above already in the works or available, the push for nuclear is completely irrational. It is an energy source that does not exist here, is the most expensive form of electricity on a levelized cost basis, for which everything — including the knowledge to operate and regulate it effectively — must be imported, and whose most promising forms, the so-called micro and small modular reactors (MMR and SMR, respectively) have not yet been reliably demonstrated on a commercial scale. Nuclear is a zebra for a solution that requires a horse — exotic and eye-catching, but harder to acquire, harder to manage, and probably not capable of economically pulling the same amount of weight.