The fish doesn't need a bicycle

EVEN though BusinessWorld takes pains to make certain stories at least appear to be wellrounded, it has difficulty disguising its bias in favor of some truly ludicrous ideas — in this case, open support for the resurrection of the 40-year-old derelict Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) — which leads it to consider something like this a compelling lead under a headline (from last Tuesday, January 24) which read, “Philippines in nuclear push as power crisis looms”: “Ira C. Concepcion, 17, founded the Youth for Nuclear last year to try to debunk the myths and misconceptions about nuclear energy and push its use amid a looming power crisis.” Really, BusinessWorld? That’s your evidence of a “nuclear push?” The article in question does point out that there is some significant dissent to the idea of activating the BNPP, and it also points out that the adults in the Department of Energy are at present focusing more on what they ought to be focusing on, which is developing the policy and regulatory framework necessary to even begin to consider nuclear technology as an energy option. But that seems to be for the sake of satisfying pro forma journalism because, beyond that, it still falls into the trap of repeating the talking points that have been aired ad nauseum for years by that one guy who won’t shut up about the BNPP: that it can be rehabilitated for something less than $2 billion (not true), that the South Koreans are interested in potentially investing in or operating the plant on the Philippines’ behalf (also not true), and that it would provide muchneeded, reliable and cheap electricity (not even close to being true).

In our “Building Energy Security through Innovation” online forum this past Thursday, among an august group of speakers that represented the energy regulatory body, the large-scale generation sector, highlevel energy policy advocacy, the applied renewables sector and the energy market sector, I think the word “nuclear” may have been said once or twice. The implication of that was that there is an awareness of the technology, and a responsible presumption that the country ought to be fully informed and understand it as much as any energy technology that might have some potential future application, but that there are certainly more immediately promising priorities. If there’s a “push” for nuclear energy in the Philippines, it is certainly not coming from the people who are in a position to actually do something about it.

If there are any myths and misconceptions that need to be debunked, it is those that have been irresponsibly spread for years about the BNPP, which for almost the last 40 years has made about as much sense for the Philippines as a bicycle built for a fish. One of my projects for this year, which has already gotten underway, is an extensive case study of the BNPP and the prospects for nuclear energy in general in the Philippines. As to the latter topic, the conclusion will go to where the evidence leads it; but as for the former, the more evidence that is gathered and added to the stack I have already compiled over the past seven or eight years, the idea of operating the BNPP flies even farther from the realm of reason.

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As for the “looming energy crisis,” that was a topic that was addressed in the forum, though it seems the message may have been a little garbled in its subsequent reporting. The main issue, as the BusinessWorld article pointed out, is the impending depletion of the Malampaya gas field, currently the source of about 20 percent of Luzon’s electricity. It is estimated the field will finally run dry sometime next year, although the Department of Energy (DoE) and Malampaya’s new operator Prime Infra are a bit more optimistic. The DoE’s estimate is that the field might last until as late as 2027, while Prime Infra believes it can extend its productivity that long or possibly even a couple of years beyond that with the addition of a couple of new wells.

As a more immediate problem, which has garnered some headlines in the past few weeks, the Malampaya complex will undergo its normal annual maintenance shutdown in February, which might lead to thin electricity reserves and definitely will lead to at least a short-term increase in consumers’ electricity bills. There are also worries about the summer months, where the waning productivity of Malampaya may aggravate the perennial electricity supply shortages.

Concerning the most immediate problem, the risk of power shortages in the next few months, ERC Chairman Monalisa Dimalanta offered some reasonable reassurance; yes, the situation is challenging, but the government, the generation sector and the distribution sector all understand what we’re up against, and are working together to stay on top of the situation and get the country through it with a minimum of disruption. Over the longer term, thanks to the reforms and innovations that are being quickly developed and implemented — which was the main topic of the forum — we will see continuous improvement in the nation’s energy security. Indeed, she remarked candidly, the inevitable exhaustion of the Malampaya gas field was an eventuality that could have been better planned for 10 or 20 years ago, but it is far from being the only asset the country can use to securely meet its energy needs.