US nuke plan demands censure
AN alarming study published by an influential US think tank has recently come to the public’s attention, as it presents, in great detail, a plan for the use of nuclear weapons by the United States in case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Such a scenario is simply unacceptable, and the Philippines should join with other peace-minded nations in demanding that the US explicitly censure the report and affirm its commitment to the non-use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances.
To be clear, the plan written by the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council is not in any way official US policy. However, the Atlantic Council is considered an authoritative source by US defense policymakers, and its analyses, while not always adopted, are given consideration. Even the casual consideration of the use of nuclear weapons is risky, however, because the potential consequences are so dire, and this may be especially true in the specific case of the tension over Taiwan, which has become even more sensitive in recent months.
The plan is presented as a possible response to the prevailing strategic context involving China’s intentions to assimilate Taiwan, in that neither China nor the US can afford to lose the inevitable conflict, which is seen by US defense strategists as likely to occur in the next five years. From the Chinese standpoint, failing to capture Taiwan would damage the legitimacy of the Communist Party and the leadership of President Xi Jinping, perhaps fatally.
It is worth noting that in the concluding statements that emerged from the annual parliamentary meetings held early this month, the Chinese government dropped language referring to a “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, which means that the most recent white paper on the Taiwan issue by the State Council of the People’s Republic of China can be considered the official policy. It declares that “China will not renounce the use of force [to take Taiwan], and reserves the option of taking all necessary measures.”
From the US point of view, the loss of Taiwan would also severely damage its credibility to support and defend its allies, and would give China an overwhelming strategic advantage in the Western Pacific. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would also be a crushing blow to the world economy, as “Taiwan’s microchip industry is responsible for ‘65 percent of the world’s semiconductors and almost 90 percent of the advanced chips,’ strategic commodities that are essential to everything from advanced manufacturing to precision-guided munitions to consumer products like dishwashers.”
Thus, the report draws the conclusions that the Taiwan objective may be considered important enough by China for it to consider at least the limited use of nuclear weapons, and likewise important enough by the US to consider a nuclear response, or even a preemptive use of nuclear weapons in a scenario where China carries out a rapid invasion with overwhelming force before conventional US forces can be brought to bear.
The recommendations are frighteningly stark: “The United States should shape its Indo-Pacific force posture to reduce the risk of Chinese nuclear use, including by developing robust conventional forces, and hardening and dispersing forces to make a nuclear strike minimally advantageous for China. US policymakers should also consider formally extending the US nuclear umbrella over Taiwan. The United States should consider whether existing forces are best suited to provide options to limit nuclear escalation in this conflict and, if not, which new forces would be helpful (e.g., theater-based, lowyield weapons capable of striking moving maritime targets).”
As such a scenario could lead to an escalation into a general nuclear exchange, the report further recommends “further investments in homeland missile defense, strategic offensive nuclear forces, and/or advanced conventional forces capable of nuclear counterforce operations.”
We fear that the public and even the US government may not realize how potentially provocative this report is, even if it is not acted upon by the government. China, which is already clearly considering employing more aggressive measures against Taiwan, may feel pushed into striking sooner and harder, to preempt an overwhelming US response. We strongly urge our government to call on both the US and China to repudiate the use of nuclear weapons and commit to a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue, as well as other disputes in the West Philippine Sea and East China Sea.