Lower BOP surplus eyed

MANILA -- The Philippines is forecast to have a smaller balance of payments (BOP) surplus in 2020, which Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) attributed to projected stronger imports growth on expectations that there will be no issues on the national budget.

Citing the projections made by the central bank last November, BSP Department of Economic Research (DER) director Dennis Lapid, in a briefing Friday, said the BOP position is seen to post a USD3 billion surplus next year, lower than the USD4.8 billion projected for this year.

He said the problem faced by the government this year is not expected this year, referring to the delay in the national budget.

This year’s national budget was signed into law only last April, which hampered the government’s ability to finance its program, particularly the infrastructure projects.

This affected importation so imports are seen to grow by only 2 percent this year. Next year, imports growth is forecast to be at 8 percent.

Exports this year are seen to be at 1 percent this year and 4 percent next year.

This, as the current account (CA) is seen to post

a USD8.4 billion deficit next year, higher than the projected USD5.6 billion CA deficit.

Cash remittances are seen to grow by 3 percent both for this year and next year.

Under the financial account, it is seen to post a deficit of USD9.8 billion in 2020, higher than the USD8.9 billion this year.

With these projections, the gross international reserves (GIR) is seen to reach USD85 billion this year and USD86 billion next year.