Multiple eco-crises could trigger ‘systemic collapse’

OVERLAPPING environmental crises could tip the planet into “global systemic collapse,” more than 200 top scientists warned Wednesday. Climate change, extreme weather events from hurricanes to heatwaves, the decline of life-sustaining ecosystems, food security and dwindling stores of fresh water -- each poses a monumental challenge to humanity in the 21st century. Out of 30 global-scale risks, these five topped the list both in terms of likelihood and impact, according to scientists surveyed by Future Earth, an international research organisation. In combination, they “have the potential to impact and amplify one another in ways that might cascade to create global systemic collapse,” a team led by Maria Ivanova, a professor at the Center for Governance and Sustainability at the University of Massachusetts, said in a 50-page report. Extreme heat waves, for example, speed global warming by releasing planet-warming gases from natural sources, even as they intensify water crises and food scarcity. Biodiversity loss, meanwhile, weakens the capacity of natural and agricultural systems to cope with climate extremes, also putting food supplies at risk. Scientists worry especially that rising temperatures could tip the planet’s climate system into a self-perpetuating spiral of global warming. As it is, humanity is struggling -- so far unsuccessfully -- to cap CO2 and methane emissions, mostly from burning fossil fuels. If at the same time a warming Earth also begins to emit large amounts of these gases from, say, thawing permafrost, such efforts could be overwhelmed. “Many scientists and policymakers are embedded in institutions that are used to thinking and acting on isolated risks, one at a time,” the report said. “We call on the world’s academics, business leaders and policy makers to pay attention to these five global risks and ensure they are treated as interacting systems.” Nearly 1,000 decision makers and top CEOs highlighted the same threats in a similar survey last month ahead of the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “2020 is a critical time to look at these issues,” said Amy Luers, Executive Director of Future Earth. “Our actions in the next decade will determine our collective future.”