Philippine Daily Inquirer
World Cup’s Octopus oracle gets more ink
BERLIN—There’s been plenty of ink for Paul the octopus lately, and why not?
The octopus, also known as the “Oracle of Oberhausen,” has successfully predicted the winner of six World Cup matches so far.
Now, Paul has forecast the winner of Sun-
day’s championship match. And rather than go out on a limb—or maybe eight of them—the critter is sticking with the favorite, picking Spain over The Netherlands.
Handlers of the 2 1/2-year-old floppy octopus—a resident of the Oberhausen Sea Life aquarium—usually have him make predictions only for games in which Germany plays. But because of Paul’s recent worldwide fame and demand for his pick for the final, they made an exception.
Here’s how the seer sucker makes his prognostications: Officials put a mussel inside each of two clear plastic boxes bearing the national flags of the teams in his tank. Paul then makes his choice by opening the lid with his tentacles and devouring one of the treats.
Millions across Europe, in Taiwan and elsewhere watched a live TV broadcast Friday of his choice of Spain, complete with breathless commentary. He also predicted Germany over Uruguay in Saturday’s third-place game.
Paul has gotten business proposals, has thousands of Facebook fans and even has the attention of world leaders.
Animal rights group Peta wants him freed. Many Germans—upset that he correctly picked Spain over Germany in Wednesday’s semifinal—want him fried.
“Paul is such a professional oracle—he doesn’t even care that hundreds of journalists are watching and commenting on every move he makes,” said Stefan Porwoll, the Sea Life aquarium manager. “We’re so proud of him.”
After his prediction of his home country’s loss came true, German TV showed footage of a grilled octopus. That prompted Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to fret about the safety of “El Pulpo Paul,” as he’s known in Spain.
Security for Paul
“I am concerned about the octopus,” Zapatero said. “I’m thinking about sending in a team to protect the octopus because obviously it was very spectacular that he should get Spain’s victory right from there.”
In response to hundreds of angry e-mails from Germans, the aquarium actually took extra precautions, Porwoll said.
“I even told our guards and people at the entrance to keep a close look at possible football fans coming after Paul for revenge,” he said, adding that the hate mail was outweighed by declarations of love and requests for predictions.
Peta says Paul’s tank is too small. But Porwoll said the creature was born in captivity and has never had to deal with any natural enemies, so dumping Paul into the Atlantic would likely mean death. He could live up to four years in captivity, Porwoll added.
In the meantime, he might have a future beyondWorld Cup. A reporter from Greece asked if the mollusk medium could foresee the end of the financial crisis, and German TV stations have offered lucrative contracts, Porwoll said.
After Arab news sites reported Paul’s picks, it was suggested he be sent to Iraq to choose between two bitter rivals—Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his main challenger, Ayad Allawi—vying to head the new government.
Gary Jenkins, an economist with London’s Evolution Securities, hedged his market analysis note Friday with the phrase, “unless Paul says differently.”
British punters who had backed The Netherlands to beat Spain in Sunday’s final are switching sides after Paul predicted a Spanish win, bookmakers said Friday.
“The ‘Paul Effect’ has turned the betting on its head with more punters backing Spain since the famous octopus gave his verdict,” said a spokesperson for Paddy Power bookies.
Before Paul’s prediction, Paddy Power said it had seen 54 percent of the bets laid placed on the Dutch to win. But since then, 56 percent have gone on Spain.
“Whilst the shrewdies and big money punters are firmly backing Spain, Holland had been the more popular bet among the casual punters in terms of number of bets placed,” said a spokesperson.
“But since Paul’s prediction on a Spain win, we’ve taken more bets on the Spanish for the first time since the final lineup was known.”
Paul’s effect is not as strong at rival bookmakers’ William Hill, who said people are suspicious of placing hard cash on the musings of an octopus.
“We have not changed our prices. We’ve had a few quick rushes on Spain after Paul’s prediction, but I think our bettors make their own decision rather than following the octopus,” a spokesperson said.
Graham Sharpe, the spokesperson for William Hill, said bettors have been asking the staff about the picks by the buoyant clairvoyant.
“If you had just bet 10 pounds ($15) on each of Paul’s six successive winning selections ... so far, you would have made a healthy profit of 84 pounds ($126)—but if you had put the winnings from each bet all onto the next one, you would now be looking at 1,400 pounds ($2,108) of profit,” Sharpe said.
Paul is not without competition. There’s also Mani, a parakeet in Singapore, who predicted the Dutch would win Sunday by creeping out of his wooden cage and choosing between two cards that bore the two nations’ flags.
In South Africa, Spanish team defender Carlos Marchena isn’t putting too much stock in Paul’s pick.
“It’s only an octopus,” he said.