Suspense high on next Pope
Benedict’s successor elected by Easter
VATICAN CITY—Pope Benedict XVI’s surprise announcement on Monday that he will resign on Feb. 28 sets the stage for a succession battle that is likely to determine the future course of a Church troubled by scandal and declining faith in its traditional strongholds around the world.
Citing advanced years and infirmity, Benedict became the first Pope in six centuries to resign. Vatican officials said they hoped to have a new Pope in place by Easter, while expressing shock at a decision that some said had been made as long as a year ago.
The task of guiding the world’s 1 billion Catholics will fall to his successor, who will have to contend not only with a Church marred by the sexual abuse crisis but also with an in- creasingly secular Europe and the spread of Protestant evangelical movements in the United States, Latin America and Africa.
Already, speculation is rife about who best fills the perceived needs of the Church. The
post once reserved for Italians is now open for all, although about half the cardinals who will vote for the next Pope are from Europe.
Cardinal Angelo Scola, the powerful archbishop of Milan, is seen as the strongest Italian contender. Also regarded as contenders are Cardinals Marc Ouellet, a dogmatic theologian and a Canadian; Peter Appiah Turkson of Ghana, head of the Pontifical Council for Social Justice; Leonardo Sandri of Argentina; and Timothy Dolan of New York.
Dark horse
The name of a Filipino has also come up as a “dark horse”—Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, the archbishop of Manila.
Tagle’s close alignment to Benedict, an uncompromising conservative on social and theological issues, could work in his favor, with the Philippines a bulwark of Catholicism in a mainly Hindu, Muslim and Buddhist region, according to Reuters.
Tagle offered a glimpse of that conservatism in comments after his elevation to cardinal in November: “The Church must discover the power of silence. Confronted with the sorrows, doubts and uncertainties of people, she cannot pretend to give easy solutions,” he said.
No clear front-runner
There’s no clear front-runner. So, will the papacy return to Italy, after three decades of a Polish and a German Pope? Or does Latin America, deserve one of its own at the Church’s helm?
Will a younger cardinal be considered, now that future Popes can feel freer to resign? Or will it again go to an experienced cardinal for another “transitional” papacy?
The 110-plus cardinals who are under age 80 and eligible to vote will weigh all those questions and more when they sequester themselves in the Sistine Chapel next month to choose Benedict’s successor.
Missionary and showman
Benedict’s resignation sets up a struggle between the staunchest conservatives, in Benedict’s mold, who advocated a smaller Church of more fervent believers, and those who feel the Church can broaden its appeal in small but significant ways, like allowing divorced Catholics who remarry without an annulment to receive communion, or loosening restrictions on condom use in an effort to prevent AIDS.
Many Vatican watchers suspect the cardinals will choose someone with better management skills and a more personal touch than the bookish Benedict, someone who can extend the Church’s reach to new constituencies, particularly to the young people of Europe, for whom the Church is now largely irrelevant, and to Latin America and Africa, where evangelical movements are fast encroaching.
“They want somebody who can carry this idea of new evangelization, relighting the missionary fires of the Church and actually make it work, not just lay it out in theory,” said John L. Allen, a Vatican expert.
Someone who will be “the Church’s missionary in chief, a showman and salesman for the Catholic faith, who can take the reins of government more personally into his own hands,” he added.
The other big battle in the Church is over the demographic distribution of Catholics, which has shifted decisively to the developing world.
Staggering challenges
Today, 42 percent of adherents come from Latin America and about 15 percent from Africa, versus only 25 percent from Europe. That has led many in the Church to say that the new Pope should represent a part of the world where membership is growing quickly, while others say spiritual vision should be paramount.
But while most of the world’s Catholics live outside Europe, most of the cardinals come from Europe, pointing to a central tension: While the Vatican is a global organization, it is often run like an Italian village.
A conservative theologian with an interest in bioethics and Catholic-Muslim relations, Scola is known for his intellect, his background in the same theological tradition as Benedict, his media savvy and his strong ties with the Italian political establishment.
Ouellet is widely seen as a favorite of Benedict, who named him head of the Vatican’s influential Congregation for Bishops to help select bishops around the world.
Critics in his native Quebec said that Ouellet was out of step with the province’s more progressive bishops, but that is not necessarily a drawback in today’s Church.
Likely African contender
Ghana’s Turkson is seen as the most likely African contender for the papacy. He is known for his semiorthodox views on the use of condoms, saying that married couples could possibly use them to prevent infection when one partner is HIV-positive, although he has also defended Benedict’s remark that condom use increases the risk of AIDS spreading.
The Argentine Sandri would excite the Latin American wing of the Church. He is also a skillful Vatican insider who served in the Secretariat of State under John Paul II and knows how to navigate the Vatican’s complex bureaucracy, which might make him effective, experts say.
For the first time there is talk that the American Dolan could be a contender. His deep conservatism combined with a folksy charisma make him popular with the faithful, at a time when the Church is focused on “new evangelization.”
Debilitating scandals
Benedict was seen as a weak manager, and his papacy was troubled by debilitating scandals, most recently one in which his butler was convicted by a Vatican court last October of aggravated theft after he admitted stealing confidential documents, many of which wound up in a tell-all book that showed behind-the-scenes Vatican intrigue.
Benedict’s successor will have to contend with a range of staggering practical challenges, including a perennial shortage of priests and nuns worldwide, as well as a sexual abuse crisis that has undermined the Church’s moral authority, especially in Germany and the English-speaking countries where it has been most aggressively discovered.
In much of the developing world, evangelical churches are moving in on territory once dominated by the Catholic Church, drawing in new faithful with services that offer upbeat music and an emphasis on selfimprovement.
“If I were investing the Church’s efforts, I would put Latin American high, to avoid a second Europe,” said Philip Jenkins, distinguished professor of history.