With law passed, Japan’s PM sees fierce backlash
TOKYO—Japan’s nationalist leader succeeded in ramming through legislation that would allow the nation’s troops to fight abroad, but analysts said fierce opposition at home and abroad could make it difficult to use the laws.
Parliament in the officially pacifist nation passed the contentious security bills early on Saturday, a move that could see Japanese troops engage in combat overseas for the first time since the end of World War II.
The legislation sparked unprecedented street protests with tens of thousands taking part and fueled anger among Japan’s neighbors.
China and the two Koreas, which suffered harsh Japanese occupations in the 20th century, all blasted the new laws.
Shinzo Abe sees the laws as necessary to protect against threats from China and North Korea. But opponents said the vague wording could lead to Japan being dragged into far-flung foreign conflicts similar to the US invasions of Iraq or Afghanistan.
“After observing stronger than initially expected opposition, speculation is rising that the new laws are politically difficult to actually use,” said Tomoaki Iwai, professor of politics at Nihon University. “Public support for the Abe administration will decline, if temporarily, after enacting the bills amid doubt whether the legislation is unconstitutional.”
Public approval for Abe’s cabinet has fallen to 38.9 percent from 43.2 percent in mid-August, with a majority of respondents opposing the bills, a Kyodo News poll showed on Sunday.
Any lawsuit aimed at overturning the legislation could take years to wind its way through various lower courts before reaching the Supreme Court.
But Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party faces upper-house elections next summer. While a loss would not force a change of government, it would mark a significant blow to the 60-year-old leader and his party.
“Abe’s government could last long but his political capital will decline gradually,” said Tetsuro Kato, professor emeritus at Hitotsubashi University, noting that the official opposition is weak and Abe has no meaningful rivals within his party.
The constitution imposed by a post-war US occupation force barred Japan’s military from combat except in self-defense.
Abe opted to reinterpret the meaning of self-defense to push through the new laws, but sparked a groundswell of opposition not seen for decades.
Japan’s Self-Defense Forces have not fired a gun in anger for 70 years. But that could now change depending on future geopolitical developments.
If a situation arose in which Japanese troops suffered casualties, “that would become a serious political problem,” Kato said.
Opponents of the legislation vowed to take the issue to court. But analysts said there were only slim hopes the laws could be overturned in court.
To claw back some of the support he lost over the security legislation, Abe is expected to focus on economic policy and diplomacy, including improving ties with China, said Iwai of Nihon University.
Mikitaka Masuyama, a politics professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said Abe could ride out the storm if he could bolster the faltering economy.
“Among those who oppose the bills, many people who don’t have strong opinions on the issue may soon lose interest and focus on their daily lives,” Masuyama said. “If Abenomics succeeds in rekindling the Japanese economy, that would matter to those people. But if the premier fails to beef up the economy, people may regard the security legislation as a reason to drop support for Mr. Abe.”