China’s build, build, build on reefs fuels concerns
HONG KONG/SINGAPORE—
At first glance from above it looks like any clean and neatly planned small town, complete with sports grounds, neat roads and large civic buildings.
But the town is on Zamora Reef, internationally known as Subi Reef, in the Spratlys archipelago of the hotly contested South China Sea and, regional security experts believe, could soon be home to China’s first troops based in the maritime heart of Southeast Asia.
Private sector data analysis reviewed by Reuters shows Zamora, some 1,200 kilometers from China’s coast and located in Philippine waters, is now home to nearly 400 individual buildings—far more than other Chinese islands.
Zamora could be the future location of hundreds of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops, as well as a possible administrative hub as China cements its claim with a civilian presence, according to security analysts and diplomatic sources.
Standard PLA base
The data from Earthrise Media, a nonprofit group supporting independent media with imagery research, was based on surveys of high-resolution images obtained by DigitalGlobe satellites, dating back to when China started dredging reefs in early 2014.
The images show neat rows of basketball courts, parade grounds and a wide variety of buildings, some flanked by radar equipment.
Earthrise founder Dan Hammer said his team’s count included only freestanding, permanent and recognizable structures.
“When I look at these pictures I see a standard PLA base on the mainland—it is incredible, right down to the basketball courts,” Singapore-based security analyst Collin Koh said after reviewing the data and images.
“Any deployment of troops will be a huge step, however—and then they will need to secure and sustain them, so the military presence will have to only grow from where it is now,” Koh said.
Senior Western diplomats describe the placement of troops or jet fighters on the islands as a looming test of international efforts to curb China’s determination to dominate the vital trade waterway.
Big Three
Zamora is the largest of seven Philippine-claimed reefs that China seized and transformed into man-made islands in the Spratlys.
The so-called Big Three reefs of Zamora, Panganiban (Mischief) and Kagitingan (Fiery Cross) all share similar infrastructure—in- cluding emplacements for missiles, 3-km runways, extensive storage facilities and a range of installations that can track satellites, foreign military activity and communications.
Panganiban and Kagitingan each house almost 190 individual buildings and structures, according to the Earthrise analysis.
The previously unpublished data details the building count on more than 60 South China Sea features, including those occupied by Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and the Philippines.
While the data shows welldeveloped infrastructure on some on islands such as Vietnam’s Spratly Island, the Philippines’ Pag-asa (Thitu) Island and Taiwan’s Itu Aba, the scale and development by China dwarfs its rivals.
The number of buildings on Zamora Reef makes it similar in size to Woody Island in the Paracels, a Beijing-controlled group much closer to China but also claimed by Vietnam.
Woody is the base and surveillance post that foreign military attachés say is the headquarters of the military division across the South China Sea, reporting to the PLA’s southern theater command.
Koh and other analysts said the facilities on Zamora, Panganiban and Kagitingan could each hold a regiment—between 1,500 to 2,400 troops.
China intensions unclear
China’s precise intentions remain unclear, and Chinese experts say much will depend on whether Beijing feels threatened by regional security trends, particularly US activity such as its “freedom of navigation patrols.”
China’s defense ministry did not respond to Reuters’ questions about the buildup on Zamora Reef or what the facilities could be used for.
Beijing has consistently said the facilities on its reclaimed is- lands are for civilian use and necessary self-defense purposes. It blames Washington for militarizing the region with its freedom of navigation patrols.
Ding Duo, a researcher at the Chinese government-backed National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said Beijing needed a military presence in the Spratlys to protect its civilian infrastructure.
“As for how big that presence is depends on the threat assessment China has going forward for the Nansha Islands,” he said, using the Chinese name for the Spratlys.
“The Nansha region faces severe military pressure, especially since Trump took office and increased freedom of navigation patrols. So China has raised its threat assessment,” he added.
Bases complete
Adm. Philip Davidson, the nominee to be the next commander of all US forces in the Pacific, said last month China’s bases in the Spratlys were now complete and lacked only deployed forces.
“Any forces deployed to the islands would easily overwhelm the military forces of any other South China Sea claimants,” Davidson told a congressional panel.
So far, repeated US naval patrols close to Chinese features and growing international naval deployments through the region have had little obvious impact on Beijing’s plans.
“There’s a real sense among Western nations that a new strategy is needed, but there is little sign anything meaningful coalescing,” said one senior Western diplomat familiar with discussions across several countries.
“The deployment of jet fighters—even temporarily—will sorely test that lack of a cohesive response,” the diplomat said.