US REPUBLICANS GEAR TO DEFEND FRAGILE MAJORITY
WASHINGTON— The US Republican Party took a defensive campaign tack a week before elections that would determine control of the US Congress.
The National Republican Congressional Committee on Tuesday launched a wave of ads to defend 14 House of Representatives races in the Nov. 6 elections.
Trump’s planned blitz of Senate battleground states including Florida, Missouri and Tennessee follows opinion polls showing the Democratic gains in Arizona and Texas.
Brightening picture
A Reuters analysis of a trio of political forecasting groups showed the picture in the House brightening for Democrats.
Of 65 races seen as competitive or leaning against the incumbent party, the odds of a Democratic victory had increased in 48 as of Tuesday, according to the Reuters analysis, citing three political forecasting groups.
23 seats
Democrats would need a net gain of 23 seats in the House and two in the Senate to take majorities away from Trump’s fellow Republicans, which would put them in position to oppose the president’s legislative agenda.
Opinion polls and political forecasters generally show Democrats having a strong chance of winning a House majority, with Republicans expected to keep control of the Senate.
Early voting
Early voting has surged nationwide, with eight states already recording more ballots cast ahead of election day than in all of 2014, the last midterm congressional election cycle, according to University of Florida researchers.
“Many voters are looking for someone who will be a check and not just a rubberstamp,” said Mike Levin, Democratic candidate in California’s 49th congressional district.
Changing tides
Until recently solidly Republican, the district had been trending Democratic.
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won it by 6 percentage points in 2012, but Democrat Hillary Clinton won it by 7 percentage points in 2016, a swing of 13 percentage points.
This year, opinion polls give Levin an edge over his Republican rival, Diane Harkey.
The seat is among more than 40 that were held by Republicans who are not running for reelection, the highest number since at least 1930.
Republicans are focusing their efforts on conservative districts Trump won by double-digit margins in 2016, par- ticularly in rural areas.
That has allowed Democrats to gain ground in more racially diverse urban and suburban districts.
Republican hopes
In conservative areas where Trump remains popular, from upstate New York to southern Illinois, several Republican incumbents said they saw the odds as moving in their favor.
They said their chances have been boosted by the bruising debate around Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who was narrowly confirmed by the Senate after a sexual assault scandal.
Anger over his contentious, protest-marred confirmation hearings and sympathy among conservatives toward Kavanaugh have boosted the enthusiasm of the Republican base, particularly in rural areas, candidates and strategists said.