THAKSIN PARTY LEADS THAILAND ELECTION
Both projunta, ‘democratic front’ camps need coalition partners to form new government
BANGKOK— An exit poll in Thailand’s first elections since a 2014 coup indicated the ousted Pheu Thai Party of exiled former Premier Thaksin Shinawatra won the most seats at 163, while the military proxy party came second at 96 seats.
If correct, the projection would mean that Pheu Thai would not have enough votes to form a majority government in its hoped-for “democratic front” with other parties.
The exit poll was conducted by Thai research center Super Poll and televised on local channel Thai PBS immediately after voting closed at 5 p.m.
Long time for new gov’t
“I think it’s going to take a long time,” said Paul Chambers, a lecturer in political science at Naresuan University in northern Thailand.
Turnout was expected to be high among the 51.4 million Thais eligible to vote, many of whom are first-time voters, for the 500-seat House of Representatives, which will choose the next government along with a Senate that is appointed entirely by the ruling junta.
Thailand has been under direct military rule since then army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha overthrew an elected government linked to exiled Thaksin, who himself was thrown out by the army in 2006.
Uneven playing field
Critics have said the new junta-written electoral system gave a built-in advantage to promilitary parties and appeared designed to prevent the Thaksin-linked Pheu Thai Party from returning to power.
Pro-Thaksin parties have won every election since 2001, but the past 15 years have seen crippling street protests that destabilized the government and hamstrung business.
Junta chief Prayuth’s party campaigned on maintaining order and upholding traditional values of loyalty and devotion to the monarch.
The anti-Thaksin “Yellow Shirts,” mostly middle class and urban royalists who accuse proThaksin parties of corruption, have repeatedly taken to the streets, prompting the military to launch two coups in a decade.
Supporters of Thaksin, known as the “Red Shirts,” also protested in Bangkok for months in 2010 after a court dissolved a pro-Thaksin government, again paralyzing commerce until a crackdown that left at least 90 people dead and saw landmark buildings burned.
The country’s king made an unexpected call for “security” and “happiness” hours before the vote.
King Maha Vajiralongkorn did not refer to any of the sides in the race, but it was a startling departure from the approach of his late father, who kept away from politics.
Pro-Thaksin parties are expected to win the largest num- ber of seats in the House of Representatives.
However, new junta-written electoral rules ensure the military will continue to have a say in the next government, even if Prayuth does not stay on as prime minister.
The rules mean Prayuth’s Palang Pracharat Party and allies have to win only 126 seats in the House, while Pheu Thai and its potential “democratic front” partners would need 376.
Democratic front
Among the potential Pheu Thai allies is the new Future Forward Party, led by 40-yearold billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, who has been critical of the junta.
Thanathorn faces charges under the Computer Crime Act for a critical Facebook speech and prosecutors have said they would decide whether to put him on trial after the election.
Pheu Thai also has several pro-Thaksin allied parties, although its main alternate party, Thai Raksa Chart, was disquali- fied by a court for nominating Princess Ubolratana, sister of the king, as its prime ministerial candidate.
Two other officially nonaligned parties could be decisive in whether promilitary or “democratic front” factions make up the next government.
Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, leader of the anti-Thaksin Democrats, has portrayed himself as a third way between the “dictatorship” of Prayuth and a return to the “corruption” of “Thaksinism.”
The Bhumjaithai Party of Anutin Charnvirakul placed third in the last election of 2011.
Shaky coalition predicted
Regardless of the makeup of the government, the election would likely result in a shaky coalition that would not be able to accomplish much, Chambers said.
“There could be a stable government coming out of it in the short term,” he said. “But that kind of coalition is not going to last that long.”