UK TORIES’ LEAD CLOSES ON ELECTION EVE
LONDON—A major polling forecaster slashed its prediction for Boris Johnson’s majority in Thursday’s British general election, saying the race has tightened and the prime minister can no longer be sure of victory.
Yougov, which accurately predicted the outcome of the last election two years ago with an elaborate survey that estimates the outcome in individual constituencies, cut its forecast for Johnson’s likely majority by more than half to 28 seats from the majority of 68 two weeks ago.
Possible outcomes still range from a landslide victory for Johnson’s Conservatives to a hung parliament with no party in control.
Most important in memory
The Dec. 12 election has been described by all parties as Britain’s most important in memory, with Johnson calling for a big majority so he can swiftly pull Britain out of the European Union. The main opposition Labour Party promises a new referendum on Brexit and the renationalization of utilities and railroads in its most left wing platform for decades.
The Yougov model indicated Johnson’s Conservatives were on course to win 339 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons with 43 percent of the vote, versus Labour’s 231 seats with 34 percent of the vote.
While that would be the Conservatives’ best performance in seat terms since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 win, Yougov said the Conservatives’ tally could fall anywhere from 311 to 367.
Hung parliament possible
“It could not be tighter,” Johnson, the face of the Leave campaign in the 2016 referendum, said on Wednesday when asked about the opinion polls showing a tighter race.
“I’m just saying to everybody the risk is very real that we could tomorrow be going into another hung parliament, that’s more drift, more dither, more delay, more paralysis for this country,” he said.
Sterling fell sharply immediately after the poll, hitting as low as $1.3107, a drop of more than half a cent in Asian trading. In London it was last at $1.3117, down 0.3 percent on the day. Half a dozen opinion polls are due on Wednesday.
Johnson called the snap election to break what he said was the paralysis of Britain’s political system after more than three years of crisis over how, when or even if to leave the European Union.
He has promised to deliver Brexit by Jan. 31, if he wins a majority. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said he will negotiate a new Brexit deal and then grant a new EU referendum.