Worrying new variants

COVID-19 is here to stay, and the world will have to learn to live with it. That’s the prognosis of experts. The virus that has killed more than 2 million people globally is likely to evolve into an endemic or a “mild nuisance” similar to the four human coronaviruses that cause the common cold. But to reach that stage will depend on how humans, particularly older populations, develop immunity to the virus and how fast the pathogen evolves, according to a National Geographic article published online on Jan. 22. Crucially, immunity can be only achieved either through recovery from natural infections, or large-scale vaccination.

That element is still to happen in the Philippines, which is lagging in its vaccination program compared to Asean neighbors like Singapore and Myanmar, where even a military coup has not stopped the vaccine rollout.

Some 60 to 70 percent of the world’s human population will need to be immune in order to end the pandemic phase, said the National Geographic report. But before achieving this widespread immunity, experts warn that health care systems around the world will possibly be overwhelmed and the world will see more COVID-19 deaths first. “People have got to realize, this is not going to go away,” stressed Roy Anderson, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London, quoted in the report. “We’re going to be able to manage it because of modern medicine and vaccines, but it’s not something that will just vanish out of the window.”

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has even mutated into three variants: the UK variant (B.1.1.7), the South Africa variant (B.1.351), and the Brazil variant (P.1 and P.2). While the World Health Organization has said there is no evidence yet that these variants are deadlier than the original novel coronavirus strain, a cause for worry is that “they tend to spread faster, they’re more transmissible or more infectious.”

The Philippines has already reported 25 cases of the UK variant as of Feb. 5, with the first case—a businessman who came from Dubai—announced by the Department of Health last Jan. 13. However, Dr. Edsel Salvana from the DOH-Technical Advisory Group told an online press briefing late last month that the UK variant was already detected in the country as early as Dec. 10—four days before the United Kingdom made its report to the WHO. But, Salvana said, it was “too early” to tell then if it was already the variant.

Currently authorized mRNA vaccines, like those made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, are still said to provide protection against the new variants. Researchers have also expressed confidence that updating vaccines to respond to new variants can be done quickly— about six weeks for authorized mRNA vaccines, but could take longer depending on the regulatory process.

But a crucial issue affecting the success of a worldwide vaccination rollout is the inequity in global health. According to Amnesty International, wealthy countries representing 14 percent of the world’s population have already cornered 53 percent of vaccine orders as early as September last year, while poor countries were left to scrape meager resources to fund their much-needed pandemic responses. The Economist Intelligence Unit earlier estimated that rich countries would have widely accessible vaccines by early 2022, while poorer countries in Africa and Asia may not have them until as late as 2023.

The Philippines, for one, is expecting to receive the first batch of its vaccine orders on Feb. 20, aiming to inoculate 70 million of the 108-million population (starting with priority groups like frontline workers) by end of this year. However, a comprehensive and transparent master plan for the rollout—where should people go for their shots in their communities, who will administer the vaccine, how will tracking be done especially for the crucial second shot weeks later, what steps are being taken to ensure proper vaccine storage, etc.—is seemingly all up in the air yet, the government providing sparse discussion of such critical details.

While Filipinos await getting their vaccination against COVID-19, measures that have so far kept people protected such as wearing face mask, hand-washing, and maintaining physical distance should be even more mandatory. Vigilance and care are paramount, say experts, especially now that the virus has mutated into variants that spread more easily.

“…[I]f you now go to the store two or three times a week, cut back to just once a week,” advised a New York Times commentary published last Jan. 19. “If you’ve been spending 30 to 45 minutes in the grocery store, cut your time down to 15 or 20 minutes. If the store is crowded, come back later. If you’re waiting in line, be mindful of staying at least six feet apart from the people ahead of you and behind you.” The virus remains out there, and it’s shape-shifting fast.