Urban mobility at the cusp of disruptive change
Total carbon emissions have now exceeded pre-pandemic levels because of rebounding economies. This is despite the scarcity and rising costs of fuel as well as global efforts to curb carbon emissions.
While the energy and climate crises have been pushing the transition to clean energy, our current economy is still largely dependent on non-renewable sources of energy. Primary energy demand is still supplied largely by fossil fuels.
TRANSFORMATIONAL SHIFT
The crisis is pushing urban mobility to the cusp of a major transformational shift.
In some countries such as the United States, China and portions of Europe, electric vehicles (EVs) and their hybrid variants have been gaining market share. Some experts predict the mass adoption of electric vehicles in the US and other developed countries by 2040. Advances in EV technology—coupled with conflating issues of fuel cost, climate change and public health issues due to pollution—are shifting public opinion and government policies against conventional motor vehicles.
Norway leads the pack in the shift to EVs with over 90 percent of new car registrations in 2021. The city of Copenhagen, which has successfully weaned itself from automobile dependence since the ’70s, plans to create zero-emission zones where only electric or hydrogen-fueled vehicles are allowed.
Elsewhere, a different form of transformation in urban mobility is taking shape. As developed countries shift from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs, developing countries in Asia and Africa are seeing growth in motor vehicle consumption. Developing countries may also be the recipients of second-hand ICEs which are being phased out.
At the same time, cultural perceptions could reinforce this growth as developing nations progress, given the prevailing bias for car ownership as a symbol of success. On top of these, the lower costs of conventional cars, the absence of subsidies for EVs and the lack of infrastructure will constrain the shift to EVs.
In other developed cities another trend is emerging— the move towards reduced use of private vehicles altogether, electric, or otherwise.
Some cities such as Hamburg plan to be totally car-free by 2030. Barcelona has introduced car-free streets by consolidating its grid of streets to form Superblocks with limited car accessibility. Some cities such as Paris aim to be 15-minute cities, an urban model wherein residents can access essential needs (work, shops, schools, leisure) within a short walk or bike ride.
Here, the focus is on accessibility and proximity, not just mobility, thus enabling car-optionality.
ACTIVE, INCLUSIVE MOBILITY
A closer look at Metro Manila may yet reveal another trend— active mobility and inclusive transport.
Cycling has become a necessary mode of transport for many Metro Manila citizens due to the lockdowns and the inadequacy of public transportation. Over the last two years, there have been documented increases in use and ownership of bicycles.
Notably, inclusive mobility advocates and citizen-led mobility groups have grown in number and influence. The shift is logical given that there are only 700,000 private cars registered in the NCR where the population is over 14 million. The overwhelming majority still go around by public transport, cycling or walking.
These different trends are carried by two divergent currents leading to different outcomes for our city centers. One leads to increasing car dependency, more automobile infrastructure and continued consumption, while the other is citizen-led, prompted by the need for safer streets, more accessible cities, lower costs and better communities.
CRISIS-INDUCED TRANSFORMATION
The last time city mobility was at the cusp of radical transformation was in the 1890s at the dawn of the automobile.
Transportation in cities such as New York was predominantly by horse-drawn carriages. Horse population in NYC reached a peak of at least 150,000, creating problems in sanitation, congestion and pollution with horse manure and horse carcasses littering the streets. These problems led to laws that regulated horses in the city and contributed to the mass adoption of the “cleaner and cheaper” motor car and subsequently the creation of an entire ecosystem of highways, vehicles, factories, suburbs and a global car culture that has prevailed for more than a century.
Copenhagen experienced another form of crisis-induced transformation. It became a cycling city due to the oil embargo in the 1970s. Scarcity, along with citizen demonstrations that demanded prioritizing bikes, led to policies that disincentivized the use of private cars and shifted investments away from building highways and towards cycling infrastructure. To date, Copenhagen ranks as one of the most livable cities in the world.
These examples show two different responses to crises and therefore two different outcomes, each with a lasting effect on the city and its residents. They also show how crises can trigger the mass adoption of outlier ideas.
No one in 1890 would have predicted how entrenched and pervasive motor cars would be. Neither could anyone predict before 1970 that Copenhagen will become a bike-friendly city. Crises created tipping points that allowed incipient ideas to cascade exponentially until they became mainstream. These events are hard to predict because we tend to think linearly, dependent on the momentum of the past.
In our current situation of scarcity, we again wonder where the currents of change will lead us. Amid these unfolding transformations is the future of the city street. We can choose to think differently and radically about urban mobility and build our infrastructure accordingly. It will all just depend on who we will choose to build them for.