Russia ‘carving out’ a fortress for Assad
Moscow’s priority is to protect ‘useful Syria,’ military historian says
The few Russian strikes against IS targets are only to “justify their campaign but it’s not really their priority,” says Michel Goya, a military historian at Sciences Po university in Paris
PARIS—The contours of Russia’s strategy in Syria are emerging as it tries to carve out a rebel-free zone for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and shut out Western forces from his air space.
Although the stated aim of Russia’s mission was to target the Islamic State (IS) group, most analysts have dismissed these claims as window-dressing for a campaign that primarily seeks to prop up Assad’s embattled regime against a much broader group of rebels.
“The priority for the Russians is to protect ‘useful Syria,’ said Michel Goya, a military historian at Sciences Po university in Paris, referring to the densely-populated western and coastal parts of the country where Syrian industry and agriculture are concentrated.
He said the Russians’ first priority was attacking al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra, who are a more immediate threat in those areas than IS.
The few Russian strikes against IS targets are only to “justify their campaign but it’s not really their priority”, he added.
“The strategic objective is to secure an Alawite ‘safe zone’... leaving the eastern, desert part of the country to (IS),” wrote Igor Sutyagin, of the Royal United Services Institute, in a recent analysis note.
Assad and much of the leadership come from the Alawite ethnic group based along the western coast, who fear they will be wiped out if jihadists take over the country.
Since the Alawites make up only 12 percent of the population, “control of the whole country is politically impossible and perhaps not even considered necessary for Damascus any more,” wrote Sutyagin.
A US-style air bombing campaign is a departure for the Russians.
Its 34 combat aircraft based in the Syrian government heartland of Latakia are a mixed bag of ageing fighters such as the Su-24 and new advanced strike aircraft in the form of the Su-34.
But their missile systems are showing their age, lacking the high-tech “targeting pods” used by the US.
“All the systems we’ve seen the Russians use would be politely described as ‘mature’,” said Douglas Barrie, a military aerospace expert for the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
He said Russia has mostly been using unguided bombs dropped from medium heights, but its planes face limited threats if they need to fly low over targets.
“It’s a comparatively permissive environment as the opposition have fairly limited air defences — mostly small arms, machine guns. Some of the rebels might have man-portable surface-to-air missiles, but not all of those will present a huge threat to Russian planes,” said Barrie.