Electoral battle: Cebu City

EVEN if the Commission on Elections (Comelec) has still to sift through the mess created by the five-day filing of the certificates of candidacy (COCs) for the May 2016 elections, I say the battle lines have been set both at the national and local levels. I do not envy the task of Comelec officials, though. Weeding out the nuisance candidates is easy when the candidate’s faults are glaring, but what about the borderline cases?

Some 130 individuals filed their COCs for president and I reckon the Comelec can easily make a case for purging from the list a little more than a hundred of them. But I doubt if the poll body can trim the number to the ideal, which is four, considering that only Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party, Jejomar Binay of the United Nationalist Alliance, Grace Poe (independent) and Miriam Defensor-Santiago have a legitimate shot at it. But some of those in the borderline could be added there.

For now, I won’t focus on the national polls. I actually like what I am seeing in Cebu City where the battle is, by all intents and purposes, really two-cornered. Both the administration Partido Panaghiusa sa Panerbisyo-Team Rama and the Bando Osmeña-Pundok Kauswagan are starting on equal footing; both are fielding full and strong slates. How they will conduct the electoral campaign could mean the difference between winning and losing.

I would characterize the elections in Cebu City two ways. Because of some dis- tinct advantages enjoyed by Mayor Michael Rama and his Team Rama, this election is theirs to lose. That’s the first. Secondly, for former mayor Tomas Osmeña, this election would determine the future of his political career and BOPK’s continued relevance.

Let me come up with my own assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of Team Rama and BOPK candidates starting with the congressional polls.

I consider the battle between the incumbent Rodrigo Abellanosa of BOPK and City Councilor Gerardo Carillo for south district congressman as even. Both of them have issues against them; that’s one. And because Carillo is an active south district politician, he has a “live” political machinery that could fight toe-to-toe that of Abel- lanosa. That may not apply in the north district where Team Rama’s Alvin Garcia, who has been inactive for years, is battling Rep. Raul del Mar’s well-oiled machinery.

I think Team Rama and BOPK are also even in the race for councilor. Team Rama’s slate is stronger than that of the BOPK in the south district. The reverse is true in the north district where the BOPK slate has the upper hand over that of Team Rama. For vice mayor, I favor the incumbent Edgardo Labella of Team Rama over City Councilor Nestor Archival of BOPK. Labella defeated a stronger Joy Young in the 2013 polls.

For the post of mayor, I say the odds are, this time around, stacked against Osmeña. Rama defeated him in 2013 even if he had majority of the barangay captains and barangay councilors by his side. That was also the time when political leaders still feared Osmeña, his political clout and his image of invincibility. His defeat, though, exposed his vulnerability and weaknesses. Political leaders are no longer afraid of him, and are even aligning with Rama now.

For Rama, he can choose to go the way of Garcia, who lost to Osmeña in an election wherein he was the mayor and had majority of the barangay officials by his side, or follow the path he forged in the 2013 elections. If he wins this one, he could go down history as the politician who wrote finis to Osmeña’s political career.