PH’s perfect storm scenario: overpopulation, urbanization

Rather than gauge disasters on the death toll and amount of damages, a senior fellow of the East West Center research program urges leaders to look instead at the rapid urbanization that is occurring in most Asian cities, including the Philippines.

Allen Clark, who was one of a panel of experts who met with Filipino journalists currently in a reporting tour to the United States, said those who follow disasters only look at the physical effects of a disaster, and fail to look at the administrative disaster.

The Philippines, he says, is experiencing the perfect storm— climate change, urbanization and explosive population growth—all of which create a “perfect scenario for major disaster.”

While many criticized the Philippine government for its slow response, Clark says otherwise.

“They’ve done quite a remarkable job in dealing with di- sasters,” he told reporters.

He noted that Yolanda was an epic disaster and that not much credit was given to the government, saying they did a good job given the resources it had and capacities available to them.

“I’m one of the few people who say that. Most look at the death toll and damage,” he admitted.

One thing the Philippines did right was pass the Disaster Risk Reduction Management Act, the first to do so in Southeast Asia. It also passed the Climate Change Act a year earlier.

For Clark, urbanization results in a larger increase in slums, and those who end up there have the “lowest of the low” jobs. “The massive explosion of urban slums is an issue that is not given enough emphasis as it should be. It creates a high number of people in vulnerable situations,” he pointed out. This, he said, will make disasters more severe.

Climate change, he added, has seen weather disturbances shift to the south of the Philippines, with more of these typhoons hitting Mindanao. He notes that climate change has created a new vulnerable area. He added that discussions in climate change have been focused on rising sea levels, and not enough emphasis is placed on such occurrences.

He cited a study conducted by the Asian Development Bank that found economic losses from the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia could be 60 percent higher than previously estimated. The study found that it could reduce the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 11 percent by 2100.

Clark said this could cause a serious economic crisis in Asia and has to be dealt with.

“We are totally underestimating the impact of disasters beginning to happen in the Philippines. It has nothing to do with the money lost but the loss of livelihood and ability to cope with disaster.”