Threats, opportunities for Middle East in 2018
Will 2018 dampen the fires that rage across the Middle East? Although skepticism is understandable, there is a glimmer of change.
The fight against the Islamic State group is mostly over, and the war in Syria may finally be winding down.
The region is transitioning from fighting those wars to dealing with their aftermath — the destruction and dispersal of populations they wrought and the political fallout.
The damage, with half the population displaced and almost a half million killed, is huge. Tens of thousands are missing, many believed held in government detention centers.
Syrian Kurds in the north hold nearly 25 percent of the country; Turkey, Russia, the U.S., Iran and Lebanese troops all maintain bases they are likely to keep for now.
Iran’s influence has grown after its proxies were generally successful, and even its nuclear deal with the West remains in place.
In rival Saudi Arabia, a youthful new leader is promising long-delayed modernization at home and greater confrontation with Iran in the region.
If pessimism reigns, much can be traced to the failure of the 201011 Arab Spring revolts against despotism. Instead of the democratic tsunami many envisaged, a string of wars has followed.
Libya seems doomed to chaos and the war in Yemen is a genuine humanitarian crisis. In many places the old guard remains in place. So spectacular is the wreckage that almost no one refers to the Arab Spring without irony any more.
Egypt, which gripped the world’s attention when street demonstrations — and the military — toppled Hosni Mubarak seven years ago, may be the best example of the scaled-down ambition. After several years of mayhem it seems more stable now, the economy starting to grow and tourism up.
Jihadi terrorism remains a problem, though, especially in the Sinai Peninsula and against Christians, and freedoms have been curtailed.
Still, there is little sense of foment in the streets — where protests are severely restricted — and barring a surprise, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi can expect to win re-election in a few months.
Across the border in Israel, there is more prospect for change as long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces corruption investigations that could lead to his removal or early elections.
Netanyahu, albeit bellicose, has been cautious — but he also seems wedded to a ruinous status quo with the Palestinians.
He could be replaced by a greater firebrand or by the moderate center-left, which would create new opportunities.
Perhaps inspired by the failures of his recent predecessors to coax the Israelis and Palestinians into a final peace, US President Donald Trump speaks repeatedly of the “ultimate deal.”
But it is difficult to envision even a more moderate Israeli leader meeting the Palestinians’ terms, which include dividing or sharing Jerusalem and its Old City, holy to three religions.