Moody's Analytics sees 6.3% GDP growth for Q3

Manila -- Moody's Analytics forecasts a 6.3-percent growth of the Philippine economy in the third quarter of 2018 due to better investment and robust domestic demand.

This projection is higher than the 6-percent output, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), registered in the second quarter of this year.

“Manufacturing slowed in the third quarter, but investment and broader domestic demand were relatively upbeat, providing some offset,” the research firm said in a publication issued Friday.

The government is scheduled to report the domestic economy's third quarter performance on November 8.

In the first half of the year, GDP averaged 6.3 percent, with the first quarter output at 6.6 percent and the second quarter figure at 6 percent.

Last Oct. 16, economic managers announced changes in some economic targets made due to the impact of external factors.

Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno, who chairs the inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), said the GDP target for 2018 was slashed to 6.5 percent to 6.9 percent from the original 7 percent to 8 percent, which is also the target until 2022.

This cut was made after noting a slowdown in the second quarter of the year, which was traced to the effects of the six-month closure of Boracay Island that decelerated the growth of the services sector; the imposition of excise tax on non-metallic and metallic minerals; and the stricter enforcement of aquaculture regulations in Laguna de Bay.

Amid the impact of some policy decision and of external developments such as the trade war, Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III, during the briefing for the announcement of new economic targets last October said the economy remains strong.

“Again, we are facing new realities. Everybody in the world is facing new realities and we are fortunate that our economy is strong enough and resilient enough to overcome these difficulties,” he said. The finance chief said the domestic banking sector is strong and is among the reasons why the economy remains resilient.

“We have a very high foreign exchange reserves. They are almost seven months of imports and we have an administration that is closely coordinating their fiscal policy with monetary policy, so these issues will be addressed,” he added. /