Fear of robots taking jobs spurs a bold idea: guaranteed pay

(AP) -- Driverless trucks. Factory robots. Delivery drones. Virtual personal assistants.

As technological innovations make sure no one's left increasingly edge behind." into the workplace, many Here are some questions peoplefear that robotsand and answers: machines are destined to WHAT IS A UNIVERSAL take jobs that human beings BASIC INCOME? have held for decades. In a state or nation with For many affected workers, universal basic income, retraining might be out of every adult would receive reach -unavailable, a uniform fixed amount unaffordable or inadequate. that would be deemed enough to meet basic What then? needs. The idea gained Enter the idea of a universal some currency in the basic income, the 1960s and 1970s, with notion that everyone proponents ranging from should be able to receive a Martin Luther King Jr. to stream of income to live on, President Richard Nixon, regardless of their employment who proposed a "negative or economic status. income tax" similar to basic

It isn't an idea that income. It failed to pass seems likely to gain traction Congress. nationally in the current Recently, some technology political environment. leaders have been But in some politically liberal breathing new life - and corners of the country, money - into the idea. including Hawaii and the Mark Zuckerberg, Elon San Francisco Bay area, the Musk and others have promoted idea of distributing a guaranteed the idea as a way to income has begun address the potential loss to gain support. of many transportation,

Over the past two decades, manufacturing, retail and automation has reduced customer service jobs to the need for workers, automation and artificial especially in such bluecollar intelligence. sectors as manufacturing, Even some economists warehousing and who welcome technological mining. Many of the jobs change to make workplaces that remain demand higher more efficient note education or advanced that the pace of innovation technological skills. It helps in coming years is likely to explain why just 55 percent accelerate. Community colleges of Americans with no and retraining centers more than a high school could find it difficult diploma are employed, to keep up. Supporters of down from 60 percent just a universal basic income before the Great Recession. say the money would cushion

Hawaii state lawmakers the economic pain for have voted to explore the the affected workers. idea of a universal basic WHERE WOULD THE income in light of research MONEY COME FROM? suggesting that a majority In the long run, that of waiter, cook and building would likely be decided by cleaning jobs - vital to political leaders. For now, Hawaii's tourism-dependent philanthropic organizations economy - will eventually founded by technology be replaced by machines. entrepreneurs have A crucial question begun putting money into - who exactly would pay pilot programs to provide for the program? - has yet basic income. The Economic to be determined. But support Security Project, coled for the idea has taken by Facebook cofounder root. Chris Hughes and

"Our economy is changing others, committed $10 far more rapidly than million over two years to anybody's expected," said basic income projects. state Rep. Chris Lee, who A trial program in introduced legislation to Kenya, led by the U.S. consider a guaranteed universal group GiveDirectly, is income. funded mainly funded by

Lee said he felt it's important Google; the Omidyar Network "to be sure that everybody started by eBay will benefit from founder Pierre Omidyar; the technological revolution and GoodVentures, co-led that we're seeing to by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz.

Providing a basic income in expensive countries like the United States would, of course, be far costlier.

Tom Yamachika, president of the Tax Foundation of Hawaii, a nonprofit dedicated to limited taxes and fairness, has estimated that if all Hawaii residents were given $10,000 annually, it would cost about $10 billion a year, which he says Hawaii can't afford given its $20 billion in unfunded pension liabilities.

"Basic income is such a broad subject, it could encompass hundreds of different kinds of mechanisms to help families," Lee said. "You don't have to enact the entire thing in one massive program. You can takebitsand piecesthat make sense."

Karl Widerquist, cofounder of the U.S. Basic Income Guarantee Network, an informal group that promotes the idea of a basic income, suggests that Hawaii could collect a property tax from hotels, businesses and residents that could be redistributed to residents.

"If people in Alaska deserve an oil dividend, why don't the people of Hawaii deserve a beach dividend?" he asked.

Other proponents suggest replacing part of the nation's web of social support programs with a universal basic income.

Some, like Natalie Foster, co-chairwoman of the Economic Security Project, say they think that if universal income took off in the U.S., it would begin incrementally - perhaps by taxing carbon emissions and distributing the money as basic income, an idea explored in California and Washington D.C.

A study by the Roosevelt Institute, a leftleaning think tank, found that distributing a universal income by increasing the federal debt would expand the economy because of the stimulating effects of the additional cash.

WHERE DOES UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME EXIST NOW?

Not on a large scale in the United States. But the idea is being pursued in small trials overseas. The program that New Yorkbased GiveDirectly has established in Kenya is distributing $22 a month to residents of a village for the next 12 years - roughly what residents need to buy essentials.

The group says one goal is to assess whether people will change their behavior if they know they will enjoy a guaranteed income for an extended time. GiveDirectly is distributing money to 100 people and plans to expand to 26,000 recipients once the group reaches its $30 million funding goal, said Paul Niehaus, a co-founder.

"We had someone say, 'I used to work this job in Nairobi as a security guard because it was the only way I could pay for my kids' education, but now that I have this basic income I can afford to move back and actually live with my family again,' " he said.

In Oakland, California, Y Combinator, a startup incubator, is giving about $1,500 a month to a handful of people selected randomly and will soon expand distribution to 100 recipients. It eventually plans to provide $1,000 monthly to 1,000 people and study how recipients spend their time and how their financial health and well-being are affected.

Finland is distributing money to 2,000 randomly selected people. It hopes to learn how it might adapt its social security system to a changing workplace, incentivize people to work and simplify the bureaucracy of benefits.

In India, which is also considering distributing a universal basic income, the transportation minister has said the country would ban driverless cars because they would imperil people's jobs, according to The Times of India.

AND IN THE UNITED STATES?

Republican-leaning Alaska has long distributed revenue from oil extraction to its residents in payments ranging from about $1,000 to $2,000 annually.

A study commissioned by the Economic Security Project found that 72 percent of Alaskans saved the money for essentials, emergencies, debt payments, retirement or education. Just 1 percent said that receiving the oil dividend had madethem likely to work less.

"People are very supportive of the dividend," Foster said. "They don't see it as a handout; they see it as their right as an Alaskan to receive the income from the oil royalties."

In Hawaii, a group of politicians, economists, social services providers, business and union representatives will meet in the fall to begin gathering data. They'll examine Hawaii's economy and its exposure to disruption and automation and how those trends could affect social safety nets, Lee said. After that, they'll explore whether it makes sense to offer full or partial universal income.

"It could very well mean that it would be significantly cheaper to look at other options rather than let our existing services be overwhelmed by a changing economy," Lee said.

WHAT DO CRITICS SAY?

Aside from the cost, some detractors say they fear that distributing free money could diminish some people's work ethic and productivity.

In Hawaii, with one of the nation's worst homelessness rates, some worry that basic income would attract unemployed people to move to the island.

"A lot of poor people move here anyway, because they don't freeze," Yamachika said. "This won't help."

AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber in Washington contributed to this report.

Stories in the AP's Future of Work series are available here: https:// apnews.com/ tag/ FutureofWork

This story is part of Future of Work, an Associated Press series that explores how workplaces across the U.S. and the world are being transformed by technology and global pressures. As more employers move, shrink or revamp their work sites, many employees are struggling to adapt. At the same time, workers with in-demand skills or knowledge are benefiting. Advanced training, education or know-how is becoming a required ticket to the 21st-century workplace.