We have a fight coming
The alliance between Cebu City Mayor Michael Rama and comebacking former congressman Antonio Cuenco was precipitated by one man — Rep. Tomas Osmeña. Without Osmeña as a common enemy, the alliance, while advantageous to both, was not an absolute necessity.
Without Osmeña, it is almost a cinch for Rama to get reelected to a second, and perhaps even a third, term. By the same token, Cuenco will likely reclaim his old congressional seat in Cebu City south.
But Osmeña is not just an uncomfortable presence Rama and Cuenco need to deal with, he is an imposing political threat with a very real chance of scuttling the political plans both have for 2013, and even beyond.
Osmeña, disqualified by term limits to run again for mayor in 2010, was forced to run for Congress, winning and taking over the seat of Cuenco, who was himself disqualified by term limits for another run. Into the void left by Osmeña stepped in Rama.
But now Osmeña wants his old seat back at City Hall. Yet he is not giving up his seat in Congress easily either. He wants his wife Margot to replace him there. Now both Rama and Cuenco have a big problem in their hands.
Osmeña is a formidable opponent, whether in person or by proxy, and Rama and Cuenco both realize this. That is why they lost no time getting allied. While their alliance is no guarantee for success, at least forging it early buys them time to dig in and consolidate.
On the other hand, the alliance deprives Osmeña of some leverage he used to enjoy prior to Cuenco’s entering the picture. While Osmeña remains formidable, the odds in his favor have considerably shrunk. At no time in the recent past has his certainty of winning palpably shrunk.
Enter the other factors. Osmeña has money to spend, but his vaunted BOPK political machine is cracking up. Two of his councilors — Joey Daluz and Edgar Labella — are moving to the other side. Knowing the dynamics of political momentum, more could follow suit.
Then there is the matter of larger affiliations. Rama is a member of the Liberal Party, the party of President Aquino. Cuenco is close to the Aquinos since Cory’s time. That leaves Osmeña without a lifejacket. But then again, all elections are local. We have a fight coming.