Ability vs winnability

Right off, let me say that I have nothing against Senator Grace Poe. I did write an article critical of Poe once prior to the 2013 elections, but that was in reaction to what she claimed during a campaign sortie here – that her father, Fernando Poe Jr., was cheated in Cebu during the presidential elections of 2004 when he ran against eventual winner Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. As a Cebuano and as a journalist aware of how the election in Cebu went, I naturally resented her allegation.

In that article, which by the way garnered more than a thousand likes and several hundred shares (pretty high for a local column), I pointed out how wrong she was in claiming that her father was cheated in Cebu. Among others, I said that there was no need for Arroyo to cheat in Cebu because, one, Cebuanos are not hot about Tagalog movies or stars, two, that Arroyo had all local officials on her side, three, that before the elections, FPJ's own handlers in Cebu already conceded defeat.

If Arroyo cheated in that election, she must have cheated somewhere else. But not in Cebu. The one million plus winning margin Cebuanos gave Arroyo was what it was, a one million plus winning margin Cebuanos gave Arroyo. That Arroyo had her inauguration in Cebu and later came frequently with projects was her way of thanking Cebuanos for the genuineness of that mandate. Had she cheated and acquired that mandate illegally, there would have been no need for her to be so humbled and grateful.

But I was also proven wrong in that same article. I said Poe's baseless claim of cheating in Cebu will earn her the ire of Cebuanos and that she will never win here. As it turned out, Poe won hugely in Cebu. In fact, I think she placed second. The first placer was another surprise, Alan Peter Cayetano. There was no doubt that Cayetano would win, in Cebu and nationwide. But placing first here came as a surprise. That, however, is another story.

The reason I am writing again about Poe is because she has recently been thrust into the nation's consciousness as a supposedly very viable presidential contender. Having once written critically against her, after having been sufficiently, if unintentionally, provoked, and about to do so once more, I do not want to be mistaken as really having something against her, hence the very long qualifier.

If I must write again about Poe, it is only because I do not agree with the way we shop around for national leaders. If all it takes for us to sit up and notice someone is his or her rating in a Pulse Asia or SWS survey, then why don't we the electorate just eliminate ourselves as middlemen, save ourselves the electoral expense, and just commission professional pollsters to do the selecting of leaders for us.

Look at Davao's Rodrigo Duterte. We may have heard of him from time to time, but almost always with regard to how he manages crime in his area, exploits that are not worth dignifying here. Then one day he was invited to a Senate hearing on smuggling and it was there that he famously uttered live on nationwide tv one of his patented threats. So the stories about him were real, a dumbfounded nation realized. Predictably, the pollsters promptly introduced him to the scene.

Now, take note of this very well. Duterte did not just appear on the pollsters' radar of his own accord. He was deliberately transported there. The pollsters needed to light up the skies and are not in the business of whipping up public interest for nothing. Duterte was good stuff for stirring up interest in the polls. And they were right. Duterte's name started blipping like crazy on pollsters's radars. Did you notice how survey after survey suddenly started coming in?

Poe came on stage the same way. Getulio Napeñas aside, Poe was the star of the Mamasapano hearings. For someone with no legal experience or qualifications, she did handle the hearings quite superbly. She was, I should say, the epitome of objectivity. Poe gave the Senate Mamasapano hearings the credibility it needed. But then the pollsters also used her to provide their surveys with new impetus. With Binay battered, Poe surging, and Duterte a possibility, the polls kept ringing.

But why do we need the pollsters to tell us who are the supposed frontrunners in their popularity surveys? More importantly, why do we promptly give serious consideration to those who the pollsters say are up there? The answer, my friends, is because Filipinos are bandwagon clingers. First they dropped the Lakers. Then they dropped the Miami Heat even if Filipino Erik Spoelstra has remained as coach. They all packed up and moved to Cleveland, and I do not need to tell you why.

So when the pollsters started releasing survey results that show Poe breathing down the neck of the beleaguered frontrunner, Vice President Jejomar Binay, it suddenly seemed obligatory to get Poe on their side, whichever side that may be. Poor Mar Roxas. The surveys always assign him to the bottom, not necessarily because he is less capable or less qualified than Poe but because he simply lacks appeal. In this country, the presidency is not about ability. It is about the ability to win.

“Poor Mar Roxas. The surveys always assign him to the bottom, not necessarily because he is less capable or less qualified than Poe but because he simply lacks appeal. In this country, the presidency is not about ability. It is about the ability to win.”