Who'll blink, US or China?

The United States threw the gauntlet by saying it will soon be sending some of its navy ships close to some of the artificial islands China has been building on disputed isles in the South China Sea. The Philippines, one of the parties to the competing claims, quickly egged the US on. But just as quickly, China warned the US it will not allow violations of its territorial waters. China, on nothing more than gumption, has claimed the whole of the South China Sea as its own.

If I were the US, I would not have telegraphed my punches. If I had any intention of enforcing international law and asserting freedom of navigation through the area, I would have simply just done it. No advertisements, no announcement. I would sail through the South China Sea and leave the problem to China on how it would react. It is a calculated risk, but one I think China will react to with more prudence than recklessness.

But because the United States advertised and announced its plans, it left China with no alternative but to respond in the only manner required under the circumstances, which is to tell the US to go ahead and make its day. The US, by its puerile foolhardiness, has forced China into a situation where its only reaction is a face-to-face confrontation.

Had the US simply sailed into the South China Sea quietly, China would have been left with only two choices -- go through the motions of warning the US about the "intrusion" and asking the intruders to leave then letting the matter go, its public duty done, or make explicit displays like engaging in a tense but non-lethal escort-throughs. Either way, China will have served its purposes without having to lose face, while giving the US the same opportunity despite its provocations.

I now doubt if the US will still seriously consider pursuing the plan, knowing how it may have handed China the moral authority on this one. The US will now be looked upon as the aggressor and China the aggrieved party. And while the whole world knows this is not the case, the Americans, of all people, just made it seem that way. If the US simply went and China stood in the way, China would be bad. If the US tells China it will kick the door and China fights back, it is the US that is bad.

Actually, I am beginning to suspect the US has no real intention of facing off with China, that its preferred mode of confronting the real powers is now only bluster, by means of brave words that no longer reflect the global reality. That is why Russia thumbed its nose at the US in Ukraine, and is thumbing its nose at it again in Syria. It knows the US has lost it. And so does China.

In fact, CNN reported in the first week of September that Chinese Navy ships deliberately entered US territorial waters off Alaska, apparently timing the intrusion while President Barack Obama was just onshore in Alaska. If that was not China thumbing its nose at the US, I don't know what is. China gave no prior notice of its plan. It never advertised its sneaky punch. It just went ahead and did it. But here is the worst part.

You want to know how the US responded? Why, it said the Chinese Navy ships were just conducting operations consistent with international law. The Chinese did not have to offer any alibi. The US provided it for them. Clearly China and Russia both now have the US's number. But the US remains clueless about its rivals.

Indeed, it is getting to be clueless even about itself, befuddled by the many burning domestic issues threatening to burn America down from within.

Just look at how unabashedly it continues to claim being the bastion of freedom and democracy. But while America mouths all these sweet nothings about freedom, Americans are really no longer free to speak their minds lest they offend Blacks or gays or Muslims or whatever. Political correctness is nothing more than organized hypocrisy and yet America has allowed it to shove aside free speech. It is a tell-tale sign of moral demise China, Russia and other "enemies" have noted very well.

‘China gave no prior notice of its plan. It never advertised its sneaky punch. It just went ahead and did it.’