Political realignments abound as local campaign kicks off

MANILA — There will be crucial, quick changes in political alignments as the local campaign kicked off over the Easter weekend, several weeks before the May 2016 polls, political analysts said.

According to De La Salle University Dean Julio Tehankee, there would be massive realignments of machinery especially from the ruling Liberal Party( LP) which is under the leadership of President Benigno Aquino.

Tehankee surmised that the Omnibus Election Code limiting and/ or barring the President from making further political appointees and releasing budget to government units and agencies may contribute to a very volatile political atmosphere.

Interesting to watch from these political realignment sis the vice presidential race among Senators Alan Peter Cayetano, Chiz Escudero, Antonio Trillanes, Gringo Honasan, and Bongbong Marcos and Representative Lenie Robredo.

According to University of t he Philippines Political Science Professor Ranjit Rye, Cayetano, Escudero, Marcos, and Robredo will be sparring with each other more closely in the next coming weeks as t hey occupy t he t op f our spots in the race.

Rye s aid t hat although Cayetano's numbers could surge, the senator still has t o exert more effort to catch up with Escudero, Marcos, and Robredo.

"Ang daming factors ang dapat tignan kung bakit sadyang humahabol si Cayetano although he really has to campaign real hard i n the last 45 days of the campaign. Andyan yung matagumpay na pagkilala ng mga tao na si Cayetano ang lehitimong ka tandem ni [ Davao City Mayor Rodrigo] Duterte na isang ng front runner kapantay si [ Senator Grace] Poe," he said.

Based on the survey made by TNS Philippines released on March 18, Cayetano polled at 16 percent, still trailing Robredo who had 19 percent.

In the survey Escudero got 29 percent and Marcos 23 percent.

TNS said the survey among 1,200 respondents with a plus- or- minus 3 margin of error showed that Cayetano's numbers jumped 4 per- cent compared to Marcos's numbers that went down.

TNS is a research firm known in the field of political market research.

The TNS survey was done almost t he same time as the ABS- CBN Pulse Asia from March 813, 2016 with 4,000 respondents. It gave Cayetano a 24 percent winin, followed by Escudero with 20 percent, then Robredo with 19 percent, and Marcos with 18 percent.

"This has kicked in especially in Mindanao na number 1 na si Cayetano. Si Bongbong Marcos bagamat matibay na kandidato ay mabigat ang bitbitin. People are already making informed opinions on the gravity of the Marcos family billions of dollars in illgotten wealth and martial law history. Leni Robredo had momentum early on but her running mate Mar Roxas is really lagging behind in the surveys and this is affecting her winnability ," Rye said.

"Without a winnable presidentiable, Leni will suffer the consequences of the LP machinery disintegrating. Thus far si Chiz Escudero pa din ang number one pero mukhang napako na siya between 25- 29 percent depende sa survey. That being said, it's a four way fight," he added.