Scenarios drawn from death of Marawi siege leaders

MANILA — The deaths of top Marawi siege leaders do not signal the end of violent extremism in Mindanao as the threat of extremist group Islamic State still looms in Southeast Asia, the head of the Jakartabased think tank Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict said.

Sidney Jones, who has long been studying terrorist activities in the region, discussed the implications of the deaths of Abu Sayyaf leader and the supposed "emir" of ISIS in Southeast Asia Isnilon Hapilon and Maute Group leader Omar Maute. They were killed in a military operation at dawn on Monday.

Jones warned that President Rodrigo Duterte's declaration of the liberation of Marawi does not put an end to the crisis in the Southern Philippines as militants could recruit and radicalize those who were displaced by the fighting.

"But ISIS has not been wiped out in Southeast Asia and Marawi won't be truly liberated until it is safe enough for some 200,000 displaced residents to return. Yet the contours of ISIS activity will shift as fighting winds down," Jones said.

She stressed that the government should focus on the rehabilitation of the besieged city and its displaced constituents.

"It should also be the beginning of a new phase in international aid, focused less on winning the war against the Mautes and more on strengthening local communities, improving social services, fixing the appallingly defunct criminal justice system and outlawing private armies," Jones said.

"Whatever happens, the 'liberation' of Marawi does not mean an end to radicalization," Jones warned.

She said the radicalization of Muslims, especially among the youth and those in marginalized sector, is gaining ground but the Philippine government does not seem "to have ever understood how deep the indoctrination was, where it was taking place or how long it had been going on."

Jones also noted that surviving fighters could recruit displaced young men, especially Maranaos, to produce a new Maranao Islamist insurgency that would evolve over time "into something that more resembles an ethno-nationalist movement than a wing of the global jihad."

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana admitted that they have not been paying attention to the "foreign, destructive ideology" but vowed that they will now be addressing this.