Palace: COVID-19 seen to have ‘minimal’ effect on remittances

The 2019 coronavirus disease has forced the government to lower its growth projection for overseas Filipino workers' remittances but Malacañang claimed the impact of the virus on money sent home by migrant workers would just be "minimal."

Citing labor department assumptions, Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles said the COVID-19 outbreak could dampen this year's total cash remittance growth by 0.8 percentage points from 3% to 2.2%.

"While remittances from OF (overseas Filipinos) reached a record high of $33.5 billion last 2019, we were expecting this to increase to $34.5 billion in remittances this year with a projected growth rate of 3%," Nograles said at a press briefing on Monday.

"But because of this COVID-19 epidemic, we have adjusted our growth projections to 2.2% and now expect $34.2 billion in remittances for 2020," he added.

Despite the lower growth projection, Nograles said the amount of OFW remittances is still expected to reach a new record-high this year.

He also noted that mainland China, where the virus originated, accounts for only 0.1% of total OFW remittances while its administrative regions Macau and Hong Kong account for 0.4%, and 2.7%, respectively.

"We also expect the outbreak to have a minimal impact on OFW remittances," Nograles said.

"DOLE (Department of Labor and Employment) also assures us that remittances from other source countries such as the US (United States), UAE (United Arab Emirates), and Saudi Arabia may help compensate for the possible slowdown in remittances coming from China, Macau, and Hong Kong," he added.

Based on historical data, OFW remittances, Nograles said, have been resilient even in the face of global downtrends.

Remittances from Filipino migrant workers totaled $33.467 billion last year, higher by 3.9% from the $32.213 billion posted in 2018, according to data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

Nograles said economic managers also expect COVID-19 to have a "minimal impact" on agriculture, particularly on exports.

"Our banana exports to China, for example, are not slowing down. While there were previous logistical issues during the Chinese Lunar New Year break, this was only a temporary setback, and our banana exports to China have returned to normal," the Palace official said.