Will China ever stop?

Here we are still discussing what went wrong with the January 25 Mamasapano incident as people try to sift through conflicting accounts amid the wrangling of politicians over provisions in the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law. In the meantime, China is slowly but surely building a military base right in our doorsteps, 200 miles within the Philippine exclusive economic zone. US officials including President Obama have already expressed their concern, but do you think China will ever stop? Nobody thinks so.

Last September, we were in Washington, D.C. to express our serious concern about China. Our friends from the Center for Strategic and International Studies who hosted us released satellite photos showing massive land reclamation work on the Spratly Islands’ Mischief Reef (Panganiban Reef) located within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Beforeand-after satellite photos demonstrated the progress of China’s building activities. Alarmingly, the partly submerged coral has been transformed into a military island base complete with runways and harbors.

The British intelligence information group IHS Jane’s satellite photos show similar activities at Johnson South, Cuateron and Gaven Reefs. IHS also reported that three new islands that could serve as surveillance posts and resupply stations for Chinese navy vessels have been created. At Kagitingan Reef (Fiery Cross Reef) located 200 miles west of Panganiban (Mischief) Reef, a man-made island has emerged, about 9,850-feet long and 985-feet wide with a harbor capable of docking warships and which could support a runway for military aircraft. These activities clearly underscore the observation of US Pacific Command Fleet Commander Admiral Harry Harris that China is creating a “great wall of sand” with dredges and bulldozers. The widespread and systematic activities are feeding concerns that China is set on asserting its sovereignty on all disputed maritime territories by virtue of its so-called nine-dash line claim – something that is highly questioned by other claimant nations.

China’s land borders are shared by 13 nations that include Myanmar, Bhutan, India and Vietnam with which it also has land disputes, while eight littoral parties (namely the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and Taiwan) have competing claims on maritime borders in both the South and East China Seas.

The aggressive behavior of China reflects the aspiration of Chinese President Xi Jinping to increase the giant country’s power and influence militarily, politically and economically to give it a dominant role in the Asia Pacific region. In the years following its stellar economic performance and its ability to sustain growth, China gained confidence and seized the opportunity to increase its global influence and shift the balance of power from the West to the East.

In 2013, China’s military spending reached $188 billion (or about two percent of its GDP), then lessened to $130 billion for 2014. Last month however, Beijing announced the increase of its military budget by 10 percent this year. While it points out that the amount is smaller than previous budgets, it is still undoubtedly significant – making other nations nervous that the balance of power might just tilt too much in China’s favor. PriceWaterhouseCoopers also projected that Chinese GDP will grow to almost 130 percent of US GDP by 2050 – pointing towards potential Chinese economic and military dominance by mid-century.

“Just because the Philippines or Vietnam are not as large as China doesn’t mean that they can just be elbowed aside,” Obama said following the release of satellite images by the CSIS showing the reclamation activities in Panganiban/Mischief Reef. Obama also took China to task for refusing to abide by international norms and rules as prescribed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Earlier on, Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario had the instinct and foresight about the Chinese never having the intention to talk to us in a “decent” manner about their claims. Albert immediately called the attention of the United States and other members of the international community on the potential threats posed by China’s massive reclamation in terms of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea where about $5 trillion of maritime trade passes through every year.

A major indicator regarding the gravity of the situation is Japan’s decision to issue a Cabinet resolution in July 2014 to reinterpret its Constitution and allow it to engage in self-defense activities to preserve its peace and security. The recent visit of US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter to Japan heralds a new era of bilateral defense cooperation with the Japanese government pushing for the relocation of the US Marine Corps’ Futenma Air Station to another location also in Okinawa.

Our friends in Washington agree that alliances at this point are crucial especially for smaller countries like the Philippines that do not have the wherewithal to defend their territory from big bullies like China.

Some nitwit who continues to say that the Philippines should not allow itself to get involved with a potential proxy war between China and the United States should have his head examined. And to those who continue to demonize the US and protest against the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the upcoming joint exercises should also do the same. The Visiting Forces Agreement first signed during the term of former president Joseph Estrada is now clearly the most important document in helping us with internal and external threats.

Although the Philippines has elevated its complaint before an international arbitration body, China has already stated its rejection regardless of the outcome. They have become even more brazen with their encroachment of our 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone. The threat is now more serious and real — simply too close for comfort.

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