Forget the stats – Painters, Texters start from Square 1

Game on Wednesday (MOA Arena) 7 p.m. – Rain or Shine vs Talk n Text

Oddsmakers in Las Vegas and elsewhere in the US have their own lines and propositions to show and entice the public.

The easiest way there is to pick the winner – either on points or by stoppage. As of yesterday, Mayweather, 47-0 inside the ring, was a 2-1 favorite.

But there’s some kind of movement here because from the time that the fight was announced last Feb. 21, Pacquiao has closed in on the fancied Mayweather.

From a +220 underdog, the hard-hitting Filipino southpaw is now at +170, meaning every $100 punched in for Pacquiao wins $170.

Mayweather, who once stood at -260, is now at -210, meaning if you’re for Mayweather, you have to throw in $210 to win a hundred bucks.

Pacquiao’s adviser, Mike Koncz, said it only means one thing.

“There’s more money now being spent on the underdog. Manny was a great underdog before but now everybody’s betting on Manny to win,” he told The STAR.

“So, the casinos have no choice but to narrow the odd. Otherwise they’ll be broke,” he said on the phone.

Pacquiao, who loves being the underdog, skipped sparring for the third day this week but made up for it with a longer mitts session with Freddie Roach.

Pacquiao fired away at the mitts for 13 rounds and spent more time, equivalent to another 10 rounds, doing other routines almost non-stop.

It’s the first time so close to a fight that Pacquiao skipped sparring three consecutive times (Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday).

Mediamen covering Pacquiao’s training in Los Angeles are almost clueless why Pacquiao didn’t spar at all this week.

There are other ways to bet on the fight. They have round-by-round propositions or the fight ending in an odd or even numbered rounds.

You can bet on the fight lasting the distance or otherwise. You can call a draw, still a possibility at 22/1.

There are lines on either fighter winning by knockout, technical knockout and even by disqualification.

And there’s one on either fighter winning inside 60 seconds.

Oddsmakers have little thoughts of Mayweather pulling off a fast one, yes, inside 60 seconds, that they have him at 500/1.

Pacquiao may have the power and ability to do this, and oddsmakers have him at 150/1 that Mayweather could be gone in a minute.

Koncz didn’t say anything more about the odds.

“Because I’m not a gambler. I’m the wrong guy to ask,” he said. He only knows one thing. “Manny will win on May second,” he said.

A team seasoned by four finals stints in the last three years and a former dominant squad on the comeback trail after a bumpy ride in the last six conferences dispute the crown in the 2015 PBA Commissioner’s Cup, beginning a best-of-seven titular playoff Wednesday at the MOA Arena in Pasay City.

Rain or Shine and Talk n Text topped the elims with identical 8-3 win-loss records, took one game to dispose of their respective quarterfinals matchups, and sustained their blazing romps in the semifinals to set up a repeat of their 2013 Philippine Cup championship showdown.

The Texters swept the Elasto Painters, 4-0, in their previous finals faceoff and have won nine of their next 11 matches, including a shutout win in the last Commissioner’s Cup best-offive semis.

These are facts and figures hard to dispute, but observers have their interesting theory.

To many, the 2013 all-Filipino finals is a distant past. Rain or Shine has become wiser while Talk n Text has aged. Paul Lee and the rest of the RoS core group have matured while the Texters are nearing Father Time, except Jayson Castro, Kevin Alas and Matt Ganuelas.

There’s also the import matchup with Talk n Text coach Jong Uichico expressing much concern on how to handle Wayne Chism.

Thus forget Talk n Text’s sweep of Rain or Shine in their last two playoffs confrontations.

This is an entirely different battle. The two teams could well figure in a stretch-out best-of-seven series.

The coaching duel between Uichico and Yeng Guiao would be an interesting side battle. The two cerebral tacticians have won 14 championships between themselves.

Adding spice to the series is the close fight for the Best Player of the Conference award between Lee and Castro. Forget the rest of the contenders, including San Miguel Beer’s Junmar Fajardo and Barangay Ginebra’s Greg Slaughter.

Forget, too, Talk n Text’s 89-86 drubbing of Rain or Shine in the eliminations since the two teams were still playing with different imports then.

For the record, the Elasto Painters have suffered only one loss so far with Chism in tow.

Chism carries averages of 25.4 points, 14.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.1 blocks while Ivan Johnson norms 31.2 points, 14.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.8 steals.

Three TnT locals average doubledigit numbers led by Castro with 18.2.

The 2013 FIBA Asia best point guard improved his averages to 25 points, 6.8 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.0 steals as the Texters beat the Hotshots in four games of their best-of-five semis playoff.

In the finals, Castro, however, faces a team that could throw different defensive looks at him.

His possible matchups are hardnosed defenders Gabe Norwood, Jireh Ibañes, Jonathan Uyloan and Lee.

Jeff Chan is still nursing an injury, but Rain or Shine is still has a deep rotation to play against Uichico’s core group of only nine men – Johnson, Castro, Alas, Ganuelas, Ranidel de Ocampo, Jay Washington, Kelly Williams, Larry Fonacier and Aaron Aban.