Will she or will she not?

We had a very lively discussion the other night with several people including an astute political operative about the fast changing political landscape. The big question that night was – will she (Grace Poe) or will she not run for president? A private survey initiated by the businessman who hosted the dinner shows Grace Poe clearly the runaway winner at 51 percent.

But if Grace decides to step back from the presidential race (because of the pressure she’s been getting) and give way to Mar Roxas, then it will be open season again. Jojo Binay will automatically go back to the top with some people like Congressman Neptali Gonzalez saying Binay will be the sure winner. But we all agreed that Mar’s chances will increase dramatically — unless of course a dark horse third candidate comes into the picture, and it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s Rodrigo Duterte.

According to the private survey, there will be a large percentage of voters who will be undecided once Grace Poe bows out of the race. These voters are very likely looking for someone outside of Mar and Jojo — who are both already well known and where they stand on certain issues.

Everyone is waiting and watching with bated breath for Grace Poe’s final decision whether she will go for it or not. If she decides to run for vice president, she most likely will be a sure winner. But come 2022, the time when she is being advised to run for president – it will most likely be a totally different story. The conclusion derived from the discussion was that either she seizes the moment or the moment seizes her. In other words, “you snooze, you lose.”

A call for system change

“Bagong Sistema, Bagong Pag-asa: A Call for System Change” is a movement being initiated by well-respected former Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno with a summit to be held at the Club Filipino this Wednesday. Some of the country’s best minds will be gathered to fully assess the “state of the nation” and see if a consensus could be forged to help the nation squarely face the challenges that lie ahead.

The main treatise of Bagong Sistema is that if we are to secure our future as a people and as a nation, we have to change the political system by revising the 1987 Constitution. As pointed out by former Chief Justice Puno, public attention has been so focused on the 2016 presidential elections although it is still (a little less than) a year away. “Everyone seems carried away by the idea of choosing the captain of the ship while few have bothered to examine the seaworthiness of our ship and the state of the ocean,” he remarked.

“But while the change in national leadership is paramount and deserves utmost public discourse, equally vital, if not more important, is an examination of our political system and where we are headed,” he continued, adding that changing the system will “arrest the worsening of conditions that have led to the Philippines being labeled a ‘fragile state.’”

One of the discussants is Professor Jose Abueva who has been vocal in saying that only people with vested political agenda want to perpetuate the entrenched political system. Former Chief Justice Puno who has been advocating a federal form of government believes Charter change should be made a campaign issue that presidential candidates must tackle. So far, only Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte has been quite clear about the issue, going on a “listening tour” to get a feel on the pulse of the people. According to Duterte, changing the system will solve poverty, also prescribing federalism as a viable alternative to the highly contentious Bangsamoro Basic Law since a shift to such a form of government can help avert the bloodshed that’s been going on in Mindanao for decades.

Supporters of federalism argue that it will pave the way for more participation among the people, which is what the real essence of democracy is all about – where local governments will have relative autonomy from the national government. Still others believe that we can develop our own Filipino-style presidential-parliamentary system, where a popularly elected president will act as the head of state, while a Prime Minister will be elected by the Parliament and will do the actual running of the government. Under this system, the Prime Minister can be replaced by a simple no-confidence vote by his peers who can then elect another PM to replace the old one.

Even those who are not in favor of Charter change or in changing the current presidential form of government to a federal/parliamentary system agree that certain provisions should be amended in the 1987 Constitution, for instance the outdated economic provisions that have proven to be great stumbling blocks in attracting foreign investments into the country.

It was unfortunate that our legislators once again did not give due importance to Charter Change, in particular the RBH (Resolution of Both Houses) principally authored by Speaker Sonny Belmonte that sought to amend seven economic provisions in the 1987 Constitution. By adding the five-word phrase “unless otherwise provided by law,” the Constitution would pave the way for more participation of foreign businessmen and investors.

Even the president himself has indicated openness to the idea of Charter change as long as term limits stay. Clearly, the upcoming ASEAN integration requires us to be more competitive globally and had our legislators not dillydallied, we would be well ahead on the way to changing the course of our nation via Charter change.

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