Noy struggles with legacy as clout fades
President Aquino addresses parliament for the last time today, racing to secure fragile legacies of peace in the wartorn south and a stronger economy.
Aquino will make his final State of the Nation Address with his political clout fading and struggling to choose a successor for next year’s elections that would continue with his agendas, analysts told AFP.
A peace treaty with the country’s largest Muslim rebel group, aimed at ending decades of fighting that has claimed 120,000 lives, is in peril as a draft law granting selfrule to the Muslim minority is stalled in parliament.
Meanwhile, economic growth slowed to a three-year low of 5.2 percent in the first quarter.
“He is entering his lameduck phase and he’s losing influence by the day,” said Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform.
“He should use his remaining political capital and tell Congress to pass the BBL,” Casiple said, referring to the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law that would create the autonomous Muslim region in Mindanao and is the centerpiece of the peace plan.
The measure has languished in parliament due to outrage over the deaths of 44 police commandos in an encounter with Islamic rebels, including from the main Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), in January.
Aquino is indeed expected to urge parliament on Monday to quickly pass the law, the main barrier to implementing the peace pact, according to his advisers.
If Aquino does succeed in finalizing peace with the MILF, it would be one of the most important legacies of his presidency, according to Casiple and other analysts.
A stronger economy is the potential major legacy for Aquino, although it is more tenuous as it will be dependent on whether his successor will continue with his reforms.
In the Philippines, presidents can only serve a single six-year term, so Aquino is banking on anointing a successor who can entrench and expand on his administration’s work.
Much of his economic reforms have centered on tackling massive corruption that has for decades held back the economy.
Aquino has had notable successes, with the Philippines earning investor grade credit ratings for the first time and overseeing some of the strongest economic growth rates in Asia before this year’s slowdown.
“But it’s a fragile legacy, in the sense that it takes longer than a six-year term for anti-corruption measures to stick,” said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank.
One of the big themes of Aquino’s address to parliament is expected to be a call to the nation to choose the right successor to press on with his anti-graft campaign.
“In less than a year, the Filipino will again be at a crossroads,” Aquino said in a speech last week, while inspecting a new dam project, that he is expected to echo on Monday.
“My only advice: pick a leader who will be true to his promise, not someone with empty promises, not someone who will take advantage of you or steal from you.”
Succession woes
The problem is, with 10 months before the election, Aquino himself cannot yet even choose.
Aquino’s preferred choice has long been seen as Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas II, his longtime ally, family friend, Liberal Party stalwart and reliable economic administrator.
But Roxas is languishing in surveys and there is a strong chance he would be easily beaten by the opposition’s charismatic leader, Jejomar Binay.