No to China’s bullying

Right before the APEC and ASEAN summits, Chinese President Xi Jin Ping conducted a series of calculated charmoffensive maneuvers to show off China as a benign, generous regional power that is willing to reach out to smaller neighbors with which it has had strained relations in recent years.

Xi went to Vietnam and then proceeded to Singapore where he had a historic meeting with Ma Ying Jeou of Taiwan, later on announcing his decision to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in the Philippines.

Everyone by now is well aware of the ongoing dispute between the Philippines and China, with the former filing an arbitration case against the latter with the Permanent Court of Arbitration, opposing China’s claim of sovereignty over certain waters and geologic features in the West Philippine Sea or South China Sea.

China is claiming a large portion of the South China Sea territory via the “nine-dash line,” which China unilaterally demarcated to lay claim over virtually the entire SCS. But in demarcating, China laid claim over certain islands and geologic features that are said to be within the territories of other countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei.

But the nine-dash line has no basis under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS which instead recognizes the 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) over which coastal states have sovereign rights and the right to exclusively explore and use marine resources. Historical rights by other states over territories within the EEZ of another state no longer have basis under UNCLOS.

But only islands are entitled to EEZs or or continental shelves. Other features such as rocks and LTEs (i.e. Scarborough Shoal) are entitled only to a 12 nautical mile territorial sea, not an EEZ or ECS.

As pointed out by Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio in a forum organized by the Asian Institute of Journalism and Communication chaired by Mel Velarde, China seized Subi Reef in 1988 and Mischief (Panganiban) Reef in 1995, and then claimed Reed Bank in 2011. China likewise auctioned off areas within Vietnam’s EEZ and ECS in 2012, seized Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal in 2012 and Luconia Shoals from Malaysia in 2013. These are said to be within the territories of other countries.

The dispute involves sovereignty over relatively small islands, rocks, or low-tide elevations or LTEs in the region. For instance, the Philippines asserts that certain geologic features such as the Mischief Reef, Ayungin Shoal, and Subi Reef are within the EEZ or ECS of the Philippines and form part of its shelf.

The Philippines and China also both lay claim to the Scarborough Shoal.

A closer look at Xi’s recent maneuvers reveals the fact that the whole affair was calculated for mostly symbolic purposes with little substance. With respect to Vietnam, Xi simply agreed to disagree on the South China Sea dispute and reiterated the same principles, slogans, and pending agreements that he and Li Keqiang during his 2013 visit discussed with Vietnamese leaders in the past.

His visit didn’t represent any significant breakthrough in the ongoing territorial dispute. He delivered a nice speech before the Vietnamese Congress and according to some delegates, there was no promise of any halt in Chinese construction activities in the Spratly chain of islands, and neither was there any commitment that China will not deploy an oil rig once again within Vietnamese waters.

There was no promise that Chinese coast guard forces will cease harassing Vietnamese fishermen, nor Chinese para-military forces will stop harassing Vietnamese hydrocarbon exploration activities in the South China Sea.

As for Taiwan, President Ma who is in his final years in office, with his Koumintang Party, (KMT) expected to be defeated in the 2016 elections, met with Xi, a first between the leaders of the two countries in almost seven decades.

There was nothing in the meeting that suggested China will stop its efforts at augmenting its military presence, as well as preparations for an invasion of Taiwan, if Beijing leadership deems it to be a viable option in the near future.

As for Xi’s visit to the APEC, he dispatched his Foreign Minister Wang Yi to warn the Philippines against bringing up the South China Sea dispute at all. Xi is effectively imposing an agenda on the host country, cautioning the Aquino administration against criticizing China’s aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea. Wang also blamed the Philippines for the awry state of Philippine-China relations, stating Manila’s arbitration case is the knot that ties down bilateral ties.

This hardline position only shows that Xi is not willing to compromise but is at the same time interested in portraying China not as an aggressive power but instead as a benign power surrounded by unruly smaller neighbors. It is precisely this hardline position that led to the collapse of the ADMM-Plus meeting in Kuala Lumpur, where China blocked the mention of South China Sea disputes and effectively prevented the issuance of any joint statement. China’s aggressive maneuver was meant to neutralize any efforts by ASEAN to push China into the corner and put diplomatic pressure on it.

Nonetheless, it is unlikely that Xi will be able to dictate the APEC and ASEAN agenda. For sure, America and its allies will consistently mention freedom of navigation and maritime security as essential elements of regional prosperity and international trade. In ASEAN, according to the draft of the “chairman’s statement” that represents the consensus of the grouping, the leaders will state that they have “reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace, security and stability, respect for international law, unimpeded lawful commerce, freedom of navigation and overflight over the South China Sea.” The statement will also mention that “we call on all parties to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities and avoid actions that would complicate and escalate tension.”

The current ASEAN chair, Malaysia, can’t simply deny the threat posed by China and the tensions in the South China Sea. And as a founding member and direct claimant state, Prime Minister Razak is expected to re-emphasize the need for a coherent approach to the South China Sea disputes. So, one can expect some rocky exchanges during these summit, and Chinese frustration along the way.

It is important for the ASEAN and APEC members to constantly emphasize how freedom of navigation is a non-negotiable principle and the bedrock of economic integration and how China’s maritime aggressiveness endangers global commons and regional economic prosperity and security.