The road to Paris: A chance for change
International climate change conferences produced strong, almost repetitive messages of urgency in the past. Yet our daily experience of extreme weather events suggests too little has been achieved by negotiators. There are few places where this inability to act has been felt more dramatically than the Philippines. This might be about to change.
On Nov. 30, 196 countries will gather in Paris under the UN auspices to shape a global agreement that will curb greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. Their objective is to keep emissions in check so that global temperatures stay within +2°C
by the end of the century.
Every country will go to Paris with slightly different expectations. The draft text currently under discussion is well balanced and offers hopes that a compromise can be found. The EU and its 28 Member States – who jointly decided to implement a 40 percent binding carbon emission cut by 2030 – will adopt a constructive position in Paris. We believe three key elements should form part of the final deal.
First, a common long- term goal for carbon emissions. We need to know by how much greenhouse gas emissions must be cut to avoid disaster and by when, using available scientific data. Ignoring this long- term goal would be a bit like running without agreeing on a finishing line.
Second, a five- yearly revision mechanism should be adopted. That would allow parties to reassess national capacities periodically because our world is not static. Developed countries will contribute most to greenhouse gas emission cuts but countries gradually becoming large emitters themselves could be invited to adjust their contributions accordingly.
The recent visit of President Hollande of France to China has paved the way for such a revision mechanism to be adopted. China, today’s largest emitter, is clearly supportive of the idea.
Finally, a certain degree of accountability and transparency is needed so that the international community can keep track of progress in each country.
Would that be enough to make climate change a thing of the past? Probably not. The best agreement in Paris only makes sense if the level of ambition is sufficient to put us on the right track today. A recent UN report aggregated all countries’ voluntary contributions to carbon emission reduction until 2030 – the “short term” as far as climate change goes. The report sent a strong positive message. 161 countries covering 90 percent of global emissions have taken part in this pre- Conference exercise. This is unprecedented. Yes, the momentum is real.
The report, however, tells us we are still far from what is needed if we want our children to enjoy the world we enjoyed while growing up. More needs to be done and more needs to be done now. We should not postpone greenhouse gas emission cuts to a later date. The further we get from the most desirable or “least cost” path, the more difficult and costlier future adjustment becomes.
The private sector needs predictable, long term commitments to invest in a low carbon future today. The cost of extreme weather events if we act later will also be greater. So great in fact that resources available may not be enough to cover future loss and damages due to climate change.
Raising ambition today can be done in two ways. First, every participating country should go back to the drawing board and reassess available low emission economic policies. There is a lot that can be done domestically. The Philippines, for instance, has implemented ambitious renewable energy targets while improving the environmental footprint of its fuel mix. The current administration also prioritized reforestation which allows carbon capture by the ecosystem. The Philippines has not officially committed to implement these measures domestically under the future Paris agreement ( unless foreign assistance becomes available). The recent speech of President Aquino in front of the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines inviting all nations to make their commitments unconditional, however, should pave the way for more domestic action.
In parallel to domestic efforts, the amount of finance needed to implement low carbon policies in the poorest countries will have to be secured. The EU stands ready to deliver, having spent € 9 billion ( P450 billion) in 2013 alone on climate finance in developing countries.
The Philippines too is a driving force in the field of finance. The country is chairing the newly formed Climate Vulnerable Forum which convened last Nov. 9- 11 in Manila. Concrete suggestions on risk pooling and mobilization of climate finance through well targeted taxes on financial transactions were put forward. Such innovative ideas might be the kind of breakthrough we need in the negotiation. The Forum also called upon all parties to raise ambition and keep global warming below + 1.5° C. They are the countries who will suffer most from climate change. Their voices must be heard in Paris.
The efforts still needed to make the Paris Conference a success are enormous but the international community has a real opportunity to address climate change. The Philippines stands out in the global discussion for its ability to generate new ideas on climate finance but also for its potentially exemplary contribution to global mitigation efforts.
As a recent campaign by France, the host country, once put it: the road to Paris starts in Manila.
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